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Random Thoughts

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I like to view the tape through four primary metrics-fundamentals, technicals, structural and psychology.

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  • Always early? Yeah, you might say that. I was "playing" the Bank of New York-Mellon take-out for ten years and through four organizations. I'm currently flat both but hey-it could be worse!
  • If you haven't read Professor Bennet Sedacca's MIM review, please give it a noodle. Good stuff.
  • Interesting enough, if I had to conclude a consensus from the Minyans in Manhattan panels on the dollar, I would say that it was higher.
  • The CCA was the MV community at its best--thanks to everyone who helped make that dream a reality.
  • I got this from one of my contacts on the sales trading side. "The S&P is currently trading at 16x '06 numbers & 14.65x '07 numbers of $95.32. If the SPX trades at 16x next year on that same number, it implies S&P 1525 which would test the all-time high. Valuations are a compelling case for the bulls if you believe those numbers."
  • Fair nuff and true dat. That's the bull case and a viable upside argument. The flaw in that logic, just so you see 'em, are two-fold. First, margin contraction would lead to a value trap. Second, the market is a leading indicator and if those numbers come down, it'll already be baked in the equity cake.
  • That is why I like to view the tape through four primary metrics-fundamentals, technicals, structural and psychology. Each is inherently flawed but assimilation adds context and depth.
  • I'm not gonna win any fans with our southern Minyans-and there are many-but I would offer that if Michigan and Florida squared off, the Wolverines would take the Gators.
  • Professor Bennet and I were pinging back and forth this morning about how "hated" the dollar is. And for good reason, right? What happens, however, if the greenback gets her groove back? My sense, and we've spoken about this before, is that it wouldn't bode well for asset classes in general and equities in particular.
  • I'm rooting for anyone playing the Raiders these days. If nothing else, let's get ourselves a high draft pick.
  • And of course, there are plenty of reasons that the dollar shouldn't rally. 8,635,596,937,286 of 'em.
  • Eyes of the World?? (Posted to the Buzz & Banter at 10:17 AM)
    • S&P 1407ish is an obvious level to watch. Odds are that there's a slew of stops on the other side of that ride.
    • Breadth? Like a stick of gum--NYSE and Nazz internals are both better than 2:1.
    • Rotation Station? The drillers and homies--winners of late--are a source of funds today. In that regard, watch the metals--another snazzy performer of late--for similar rotation.
    • The financials--the banks, brokers and financial services--are giggling green. That, coupled with 2:1 internals, has been a strong tell from a trading standpoint.
  • Fare ye well, Minyans.


R.P.

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Positions in financials, metals
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