Good luck into the close!
"Don't mind her. She's just upset that someone dropped a house on her sister."
Talk about a breakdown! No, I'm not talking tape--I'm talking trunk. Somebody once told me that things would starts malfunctioning in the mid-thirties but, jeez, all at once? Knees? Shot. Back? Pain. Head? Ache. Eyes? Swollen. I mean--honestly--it's a good thing I've got poetic license on the animation. I should pick up my hair and go home!
Back to life (back in reality), the trading tone has turned to stone. National Semiconductor (NSM:NYSE) got beaten with an ugly stick and that sacked the semis...which quelled the tech swell...and that turned the tide. The damage is relatively isolated--retail is getting smoked and the semicaps are swollen--but the breadth continues to smell sorta sour. With all that said, I would be surprised to see 'em take out S&P 1060 ahead of the twin catalysts.
Is there gap risk tomorrow? You bet there is. As I said earlier, there are two distinct scenarios unfolding. We've either broken out (and this sideways action and intra-market rotation is healthy) or the technical perfect storm is gonna slap the trapped bulls and unleash a world of hurt. The most obvious strategy is to be bullish above S&P 1060 and bearish below, but that doesn't help if you've got overnight risk (into two significant overnight events).
For my part, I'm sticking with the same stylistic approach I discussed earlier--defined market stuff (cheap vol) and individual situations. I want to be much more bearish but discipline has me respecting the textbook technical acne. That doesn't mean I can't play, it just means I should remain tighter (and somewhat smaller) until a better edge emerges.
I'm gonna jump and juggle into the close so lemme hop. Thank you kindly for the warm response to the holiday gift baskets as I know that the critters worked hard on 'em. Minyanville is a labor of love but, rest assured, there is labor behind the love. In an effort to balance (and in the interest of fun), Professor Brodsky will be joining Mr. Succo and I for our weekly vibe session. Get psyched kid!
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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