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Be very careful, Toddo!


"I don't want you to be the guy in the PG-13 movie everyone's really hoping makes it happen. I want you to be like the guy in the rated R movie, you know, the guy you're not sure whether or not you like yet. You're not sure where he's coming from. Okay?"

--Trent Walker, Swingers

The afternoon fray continues its way as the critters look for something to say. With three hours left in the session, the question becomes one of posturing. Everyone seems to feel that good news is forthcoming (Intel (INTC:NASD) and Beeks) and the only thing being discussed is whether it's priced into current levels. Leaving aside the fact that nobody is expecting bad news, let's take a peek at what's happenin' now.

Hoofy will correctly point out that a sideways basing after a breakout is traditionally bullish. That much isn't debatable--it's one of the first things you learn in technical analysis 101. Now, if only the market traded solely on its charts, our lives would be much simpler. Unfortunately, there are three other primary metrics (fundies, psychology and structural) that will affect the future path of the Minx. That's why trading is as much an art as a science--we've gotta decide how to weight the individual inputs.

As I said this morning, there is a legitimate bear case here. There is also an obvious bull case. Whichever way the cookie crumbles, we'll look back and say that we saw it coming. Boo's overdue--that's for sure--and when he and Stella finally get their groove on, this tape will go down like a college cheerleader. Is that now? From a cheerleader perspective, we can only hope. From a trading perspective, we've gotta follow our guides.

Today's tape has a little bit of everything. There's the good (Cisco(CSCO:NASD), Qualcomm (QCOM:NASD), the bad (soft semis) and the ugly (retail). Jockeying in between the scene is National Semiconductor (NSM:NYSE), the financials, the breadth, the dollar and Fokker. I'm tellin' ya--sometimes I'm surprised that the kid doesn't ride Seabiscuit to work!

I've been trading and fading both sides of the range (with an overall short bias and plenty of gamma). Some might say that the gamma goblin is a cop out but with vols this cheap, it's how I wanna set up. Not huge, mind you, but that's how I'm playing the market stuff along with individual situations in energy and retail. Speaking of huge, Aaron from Bass Trading just brought some sandwiches by and I'm about to eat my third half. Hey--I don't wanna be rude!

As always, I hope this finds you well.
position in select oil service

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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