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Birdseed!

By

Hmmph! If Toddo's right, I won't be eating breakfast at Tiffany's anytime soon!

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If you hear that same sweet some again
Will you know why?
Anyone who sings a tune so sweet
Is passing by


(Grateful Dead)

It's a brisk morning in Minyanville and the critters are bundled up as they make their way through the snowy streets. You can see the excitement on their faces as they edge into their routine and prepare for their daily dance with the Minx. With a handful of conferences on tap and a slew of company sponsored meetings slated, today's session promises to be another livewire. Let's take a lay of the landscape.

Yesterday's harsh reversal served notice to the bull camp that the long side skip isn't always fun and games. Hoofy will surely argue that retrenchments are a healthy and necessary part of any sustainable rally and, on principle, he's correct. Still, yesterday's "blow off" opening has some bears salivating as the ducks are potentially lining up on the short side. It's going to be another hairy day for us traders. As a matter of fact, the follicles are already starting to accumulate on my desk!

The CS First Boston conference kicks off today and we'll be hearing the state of the union from (among others) EMC, MU, AMAT, XLNX, SEBL, VRTS, CLS, SANM, DELL, TXN, PSFT and ADBE. In addition, the analyst community will be holding court with the likes of CSCO, AOL and NOK and we'll need to keep an eye on those ponies as they'll color psychology. Away from tech, the all-important auto sales will be released today as well as industry conferences in banking, chemicals and retail.

For the four-letter freaks in the Nazz, yesterday's high (NDX 1156) should offer some resistance while NDX 1115 (trendline) and NDX 1070 (breakout) will provide support. In the old school, S&P 954 (yesterday's high) will be the first ceiling while S&P 925 (trendline) and S&P 900 will offer support. My trusty stochastics, meanwhile, are starting to "pretzel twist" on the sell side and while they've been dicey timers, it's typically only a matter of time before that condition is alleviated (and the market sells off).

Today's tells will include the financials in general and brokers in particular (BKX 800 is the level), the crowded semis (battleground), the autos (numbers out today), CSCO (analyst meeting) and AOL (same) and the retailers (consumer proxy). The critters will also been keeping a keen eye on the internals, the bonds and Berrys (Halle!) and MSFT.

I left for Thanksgiving break last Tuesday with two legs firmly in my bear costume (50% conviction on the short side) and emerge this morning with the same posture. I continue to operate with the view that this latest rally will prove to be another bitter pill for the bulls but, from my perch, it's all about the timing. If (big if) the "Razor Burn" thesis is to unfold as discussed on October 29th, we should be pretty close to completing the phase two top. Stay tuned, cookie.

Finally, I want to throw some much deserved snaps out to Casey and her Tonic crew for the kick ass job they did on this site. This first phase is only the beginning, my friends, but it certainly warrants taking a step back and appreciating all the hard work and effort. On behalf of the critters, Case, thank you...you are a star among stars.

See you after the opening.

R.P

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positions in: emc, sebl, sanm, txn, csco, aol, nok, qqq, spx, sox
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