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Random Thoughts

By

Hope this finds you well!

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  • Levels to keep an eye on: The financials (XBD high 153.27 / BKX 104.77 / Citi 49.06); SPX 1214.17; INDU 10868.07; Comp 2171.94 / NDX 1635.70

  • Biotechs (impressive move thru 540), homies (major reversal now pennant chasing again), and transports (testing the highs)

  • I think Toddo mentioned something about a detour through Vegas?


  • Herb Greenberg's year-end report card (He gets an A+ from us for his always solid and thought-provoking work)


  • A man walked into a Topeka, Kansas Kwik Shop, and asked for all the money in the cash drawer. Apparently, the take was too small, so he tied up the store clerk and worked the counter himself for three hours until police showed up and grabbed him.


  • Phil Erlanger on this morning's buzz:

    Ooopps!...The Wall Street Journal reported that short interest rose 1.40% on the NASDAQ in December. That is incorrect. The QQQQ switched from trading on the Amex to the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ therefore reported no short interest in the prior month for QQQQ, even though its short interest in November was 205,632,065 shares (this month it dropped to 195,730,961.) If you account for last month's QQQQ short interest, short interest on the NASDAQ actually fell 2.91%. If you don't include the QQQQ at all in the short interest tally, short interest on the NASDAQ fell 2.83%.


  • Vince Carter looked funny in a Nets uniform.


  • Jason Rodd, clocked at 90 mph on Interstate 91 in Vermont, tried to evade police using the clever trick of pulling off the road, dousing his headlights, and turning in to a farmer's field for cover. However, unable to see very well without lights, he drove into a manure pit, immobilizing his car, and was tracked down a few minutes later. (Caledonian-Record)



  • B'ball rankings for the concerned parties in the Minyanville offices: Syracuse #7; Kentucky #8; Maryland #24 (it's still early folks)


  • From Lehman's Jeff DeGraaf....

    "The recent move in the Nikkei fascinates us and looks as bullish a picture as we've seen in equities in years. So impressed are we with the chart, that we suspect the Nikkei leads index performance of G7 markets for 2005. What makes us so bullish is the combination of acceleration wall late in late 2003 (admittedly disappointed in its follow-through) and the recent upside resolution to the consolidation that developed for much of 2004. The 2004 consolidation appears to be a bull flag forming the right shoulder of a 3-year head-and-shoulder bottom formation. Though the formation has not been confirmed with a violation through the neckline at 12400, the risk of the trade is so slight versus the reward."


  • Think this is taken into account in the jobs data?



  • God help us if Meehan has any kids anytime soon, but I guess he'd have to name his son William Version 4.0



  • The BBC News aired a story for its wildlife TV magazine show "Spy in the Woods" - showing film footage from a stationary hidden camera in the Quingling mountains in northwest China. Featured on the show was a panda doing a handstand against a tree, apparently for the purpose of extending the vertical reach of his urine, to more completely mark his territory.



  • Some thoughts following a weekend at Bernie's


  • Infringement - (write this down Meehan for the next time you get cited for something)



  • Jason Goepfert on this afternoon's buzz:

    About that large jump in Consumer Confidence...

    It is a lagging indicator, driven to a good degree by stock market performance. There is a decent correlation of +0.34 between how the S&P 500 did the prior month and this month's change in Consumer Confidence. Given that the S&P rallied nearly 4% in November, today's jump in the C.C. number is not at all surprising.

    The survey asks for expectations out six months. Since 1997, there have been 13 times where the survey jumped at least 5% from the month prior, not including the current one. Six months later, the S&P was higher 7 times with an average return of -1.4%.




  • Parent Deborah Meister, 46, was charged with assault in Anchorage, AK following a public meeting on school policies at Central Middle School. According to police, Meister roughed up an assistant principal because she thought he had been too cavalier about the problem of student bullying. (Anchorage Daily News)




  • Aloha!


  • Russell small fries (RTY), defense (900) and the cyclicals also testing the recent highs

  • Boredom isn't an actionable trading catalyst

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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