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Random Thoughts


Alarm Clock Please!


  • Are we almost there yet?

  • Amgen (AMGN) - company of the year?

  • Stocking Stuffer

  • High-yield bond funds reported $118.1 million of outflows in the week ended Wednesday, according to AMG Data Services.

  • All new flavored coffee

  • Denial is a two-sided coin and your perspective shaped as a function of your time horizon

  • Dollar squallor chatter

  • He needed this like a...

  • A close above 2171 on the Naz and 1636 on the NDX could add fuel to the fire (overbought or not)

  • I wonder if Steve Shobin would agree that while he's good he's no Johnny Unitas (yet anyway).

  • Anyone who has been to Hawaii - kindly feel free to send me the crib notes on what to do / see.

  • I think Meehan's checking into this

  • Neal Dingmann of MS Howells fame (from the Buzz)..."To follow up on Collins' post about the Chesapeake Energy (CKH) news, with that deal, North American Upstream asset sales have now totaled over $33 billion for 2004. This is the most since 2001 or 2000. I have found a 71% correlation between NA upstream asset sales and the OSX since 1989.

    Essentially what we're looking at here is simple sales of E&P properties (or companies) within North America (more sales means more activity which has translated into better OSX price because of the increased activity / services). Not meant as advice but certainly supports our bigger picture view on energy."

  • Hang in there Mr. Macke

  • Brokers trade dry along with retail and pharma

  • Banc of America looked valuations against spreads in the debt markets for MER, GS, BSC, LEH, MWD. The firm sees BSC as fairly valued; GS overvalued on a p/b ratio basis, LEH p/b is below the group (with equity more attractive than its debt), MER is undervalued on both measures, MWD debt is undervalued while the equity is overvalued...fwiw

  • Shrinkage

  • Dollar / bonds weakness has the metals surging, energy is looking lethargic OSX -1.8%, while beta also gets blocked (semis -0.90%, biotechs -0.80%, homies -2%). Meanwhile the nets are still nuts (TZOO +5%, GOOG +2%, SIRI +4%)

  • Mr. Bernie Schaeffer from the Buzz with "A few questions for Wal-Mart (WMT) bulls ...
    • Are you of the belief that your trade is uncrowded, after short interest dropped by 15% in December and now sits at a very modest twice-daily volume, and with 14 of 21 sell-side analysts on "buys"? Just asking.
    • Do you feel support at 51-52 will remain a lock? You may or may not wish to check out the charts for the last two occasions this support was broken. (Hint: 10- point haircut in a heartbeat.)
    • Are you good with the 2% increase in December comps, especially with the drop in gas prices over the past couple of months? The "paycheck-to-paycheck" consumer and all that? Let's even be generous and say they do 3% after the dust settles. Cool with that?
    • While you're being cool with 3% comps, are you also cool with the lowest of the low margin items (food) being consistently cited by Bentonville as the strongest growth category for December?
    • If you've answered "yes" to all the previous questions, you needn't bother to affirm that you're also fine with paying 18 times forward earnings and $225 billion in market cap for a 15% earnings grower over the past 5 years whose growth rate may be in jeopardy."

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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