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The Grind goes on


The fun of writing for Minyanville is that it is an educational and entertainment platform vs. a telling you what to do type platform. As Toddo says, "give someone a fish, they eat dinner...teach someone to fish they can eat forever." The reason I bring this up is that I want to respond to a reader who was somewhat confused that I have been saying over the past couple weeks that I thought there could be an oversold rally that would allow for a retest of the post October highs, yet I said earlier that I was surprised the market wasn't down more given the introduction of new news (ie, North Korea, etc).

I still think that there is potential for an oversold rally AND I am surprised that the market hasn't moved lower on the recent news. Please remember that even though I am filling in for Toddo who is a trader and needs to work each nuance of the market, that isn't what I do or why I am here. I see my roll as trying to get the next wave vs. guide you through each and every hour of the day. There is no way I could fill Toddo's shoes in that regard. Even if there is a little more downside before the bounce, I just don't think selling into a low volume grind lower makes a lot of sense in a deeply near-term oversold condition because selling now could look smart now and then in a few days the market could be higher than the sale price.

Again, I am not qualified (certainly not as Toddo is) to catch each wiggle. I need to catch the next important move in an overall strategy. I continue to believe that the intermediate-term picture limits sustainable upside, but also believe that the better time to sell is on a bounce, which sets the stage for a decline as both the near and intermediate-term indicators uniformly lose momentum, while not being oversold.

Again, this is just my opinion and you need to do what is right for you and what you are comfortable with and only you can decide what that is - hopefully with the help of a financial advisor.
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