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Randoms Thoughts to End '05


Fare ye well and have a fantastic holiday stretch!


  • If diamonds are a girl's best friend and dogs are a man's best friend, what do androgynous people hang with?

  • As highlighted by the savvy soothsayin' sommelier Jeff Saut of Raymond James, the current "buying stampede" is 36 days. Over his 35 years of watching stocks, the only longer run was that of 38 days---and that was into the '87 crash. Please note that Jeff isn't looking for a crash--he's more in the rounding top mindset into mid-January--but, as he's as good as it gets, it's good enough for me.

  • The other Battle Royal? The trannies have acne and the financials-both the banks (BKX) and the brokers (XBD) are thisclose to joining them. Those bullish signals fly in the face of the stretched S&P/Volatility gauge that is laying hay over a trap door.

  • I swung by Succo's for a hug and a handshake last night and asked him if he had any Advil. "No, I have Bayer." Shocker!

  • Our fantastic Freak Friday feelers for active Minyans will focus on S&P 1270, XBD 200, BKX 106 and, on a pullback, SOX 485 and TRAN 4200 (new support).

  • Many, many heartfelt thanks to all ye faithful for the fine holiday wishes. Right back atcha, my friends, in spades.

  • "An interesting aside to John's post on volatility. A normal human heart actually beats in a random way: its periodicity between pumps is actually random within a small deviation. It is not at equilibrium under normal circumstances. The only time it is at equilibrium - where the heart beats with a regular periodicity - is in the immediate run-up to a heart attack. Natural systems - the stock market being one - are actually quite dangerous when they approach states of equilibrium. Plate tectonics. Human hearts. Stocks. They all share a common behavior: they move toward equilibrium arithmetically, they move away from equilibrium geometrically. " Scotto Reamer on yesterday's Buzz

  • Maybe I'm biased but I think President Fish's 2006 Media preview is magically delicious. Why? He's been musing to me for almost 20 years and he's been spot on (albeit a bit early, which is likely a function of osmosis).

  • Those who aren't conscious of acrimony are doomed to repeat it.

  • We've spoken at length about the deterioration of the middle class and the emergence of a two-class society. I truly believe the "haves" will skew economic reports for years to come, masking a stealth but ever-present poverty in the land of "have nots."

  • I scooped a spate of cheapie spring puts on Wednesday and I'm quite comfortable keeping 'em (and adding to them) as they A) provide protection vs. select longs and B) offer downside leverage if sand seeps into the system.

  • T-minus two weeks until the new and improved Minyanville digs. Wait'll Otis sees this!

  • And finally, as this is the last vibe I'll scribe in 2005, I wanna share an excerpt from an internal memo I sent to everyone at MVHQ this week. I have few secrets--this you know--and as we're all in this together, I want to include you in the journey that we together share. Step by step. Brick by brick. And Minyan by Minyan:

    "On a separate note, and while I have ya'll, I must say that I'm humbled to be surrounded by such incredible talent and initiative. When I birthed these critters after 9/11 (bad visual), everyone thought I lost my marbles. And maybe I did. But a dream is as powerful as those who believe in it and we're gaining momentum by the day.

    2005 has been very good to us--from the financing (sans road show or broker) to Fish to Queen V to Pep to Chach to Bill (and yes, potentially Spider) to MIM2, to UMV to the guitar auction, RP Foundation, BizWeek, NYT, WSJ, the new site, the new professors, all these emerging relationships. In the immortal words of Dr. Froedrick Frankenstein, "This.... could.... work!"

    There are some who would like to see us "go away" but so many more who have yet to discover us. We're at the cusp of powerful magic--industry altering, paradigm shifting, globally branding, change affecting magic. And as the purpose of the journey is the journey itself, I cannot put into words how blessed I feel as we ready to turn the page on a new chapter.

    I've long said that the definition of professional nirvana is to do what you love, with those you love while serving the greater good. I feel like the luckiest man alive and we've only just begun. Be proud. And be excited. Be very, very excited. Toddo"

  • Good luck today and have a healthy, safe and mindful new year.

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