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Listening to market


The way that I like to look at the market is through risk vs. reward glasses. This is handy because the one thing I have learned through my years of mistakes - oops I mean experience - is that I will never get the turn date (in any timeframe) or the price exactly right and absolutely will never get both right at the same time. That means I have to be willing to be wrong at first in order to be right - both in terms of entry and exit points.

While there is still a lot of time left, I am right now surprised the market isn't being hurt a little more given the news from retailers and the geo-political events. The one I want to focus on in the risk vs. reward framework is Venezuela. The market is grinding lower (ex. NAZ) on news that the price of oil is near $32/barrel.

The markets are barely lower on a lousy news backdrop...what do you think would happen if something good happened there given the oversold condition and vacation week liquidity? The action in the market seems to advise on risk vs. reward, it is simply our job to read it as best we can. It appears to be saying for at least the very near-term that the reward probably outweighs the risk. Again, I want to make sure to highlight very near-term.
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Things that make ya go hmmmm
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