Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Head Down
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MyFriendToddo, why don't you come to your senses? You've been out ridin' fences for so long now.... - Todd Harrison - 2:55 PM
I suppose it's apropos that my final session of the year will end with yet another MVHQ mindmeld. 2006 in general--and these last few months in particular, have been a juggle of struggles but we do what we can and we do as we must. As such, and before we welcome our 3pm to the Hallowed Halls, I wanted to scribe some home stretch vibes.
- Note Goldman, that minxy beast, as she's quietly trying to flip the upside switch.
- Breadth is still 2:1 negative but some of that is being skewed by the fixed income action. Please notice that Nazz internals, while down, are entirely more constructive.
- I like to use technicals as a framework, as we did with the fade of the homebuilders into HGX 240. I sense that the OSX is offering a similarly snug risk/reward the other way. Ya hear me Hoofy?
- Please keep an eye on the emerging markets as a liquidity proxy. They, along with the rest of our year-end tells, will offer valuable clues for next week's fuse.
- The notion of "big vs. small" is resonating as we cast an eye ahead. I'm not talking about salary caps, shrinkage or the "thinhaves" vs. "have nots." I'm talking large cap vs. small caps, as evidenced by the recent lethargy in the Russell. I believe it continues.
- The VXO is quitely 11% higher today. I think that number grows in a big way in 2007.
On a personal note, I would like to thank Team MVHQ, the circle of trust and our fantastic professors for an incredible 2006. I would also like to thank all ye faithful, from 111 countries worldwide, for believing in the Minyan vision.
Five years ago, Minyanville was a concept few people understood. Now, after countless hours and a slew of elbow grease, we're making our mark. Take me at my word when I say that you ain't seen nothing yet. Indeed, the critter vision has only just begun.
Fare ye well into the bell, have a prosperous end of year stretch and above all else, a healthy, safe and mindful new year.
May peace be with you.
Under the Hood - Kevin Depew - 12:19 PM
- New PnF sell signals are leading new buy signals today 12 to 3.
- Overall sell signals are leading 18 to 8.
- Among PnF indicators, the bullish percent for the Nasdaq-100 will reverse down from above 70% today according to data from StockCharts.com.
- The bullish percents for the S&P 500 and NYSE remain in high-risk territory but still not nearly as close to a reversal down to negative.
- Meanwhile, other PnF indicators, such as the high-low indices for the NYSE and Nasdaq are still above 70% for now, but will definitely edge closer to defense with today's action.
- And to think, this major context shift will probably be taking place all next week while no one is looking.
De...de...de...FLATION? - Bennet Sedacca - 9:01 AM
See the chart here. It is the year over year (overall, not core) of PPI, CPI and PCE.
The direction is well...down. Like straight down.
What can a debt laden society not use? Deflation. Why? Ever tried to pay back debt with less dollars? You can't. It is why asset prices need to rise.
I believe the economy is walking along the edge of inflation and deflation.
I may just have to load up on some 2's. They held 4.75% trend line so that is an easy stop and defined risk.
Golf today, folks, so for those that are celebrating, Merry Christmas, and thanks for all the kind words this year. See you next week.
What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:20 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) Earnings Blowout! Revenue surged nearly 27% and earnings were up by 49% as 875,000 of the ubiquitous Blackberry devices were sold in the quarter, bringing the total of the faithful to 7 million.
Red Hat (RHT) Not Dead Yet! Oracle (ORCL) tried to put a fork in the open source software provider, but subscriber numbers were up 48% and earnings bested Street estimates by 2 cents. Shares are higher in the pre by 12%.
Late Shopping Surge To Lift Retailers? A CNBC survey found that consumers have raised their budgets substantially, by some $200 in the past two weeks. The surge should benefit big consumer electronics retailers like Best Buy (BBY) & Circuit City (CC).
Refi Demand Drops – And what a drop! Mortgage applications for the week ended Dec. 15 decreased 10.2% to 647.6 from the previous week's 721.2. Before you read too much into this, that 721.2 was the highest level for apps in more than a year.
Positions in RHT, RIMM
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