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Freaky Friday Potpourri

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Have a healthy, happy and safe holiday stretch, Minyans, andwe'll see you on the other side of the new year.

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And just like that, another year of flickering ticks is ready for bed. Maybe not in an "official" sense-we've got the bonus round next week-but today will tie up a most interesting year for alotta folks. I'm in that camp as I'll be selfishly slacking starting tomorrow, taking time to absorb the twisty turns of '06 and readying for the amazing race of 2007.

We recently offered a road map into year-end and I believe it very much remains in play. It won't tell you what to do-we can't do that without knowing your unique time horizon and risk profile-but it'll surely toss some sauce on your radar.

Away from the pure financial fray, I've been debating whether to discuss some internal evolutions which, as old school Minyans know, is par for the course in the 'Ville. Through the years, I've offered tales from the crypt, shared war stories, looked within and come full circle. I've gotta lotta vibes left in that vault-personally, professionally and spiritually-and will peel them off in due course.

Alas, those are stories for another day and, as I know most Minyans read this for financial nuts and guts, I'll shift my attention to providing just that.


Here comes Santa's clause, Here comes Santa's clause...

Alrightee then, the first hour of freaky Friday is officially behind us and the countdown to Sashimi Heaven has begun. As I juggle a few "last day" conference calls and try to tend to the tape, I'm reminded of what my grandmother used to say to me as a kid.

"What the hell are you doing in the bathroom day and night? Why don't you get out of there and give someone else a chance?"

It felt, this morning, as if Hoofy was gonna give Boo his chance to stuff his stockings. Breadth was nosty, the financials fugly, the trannies sported crimson drag and you could almost smell an offsides in the making. Most folks are positioned for further jig, we know, and have already opined that the path of maximum frustration runs through Red Dye.

An hour later, calmer heads have seemingly prevailed as market internals have balanced (still slightly negative), Citigroup is trying to put a braver face on (BKX -17 bips), the semis held where they had to (200-day) and, heck, even Google found a bid (please see the monster Google gap directly below--if it breaks $454, it's got a $25 point vacuum underneath).

Are we out of the woods? I'm watching my year-end tells for guidance and not pressing, guessing or otherwise stressing. And I'm watching the door, for in a little over an hour, we'll have more fresh fish than we can shake a stick at. And that, my friends, is exciting.

As always, I hope this finds you well.

R.P.


Mini-Minyan Mailbag


Toddo,

I just wanted to say thanks for all your efforts this past year with many upgrades and improvements to Minyanville. I am going on my second year as a subscriber and consider it a must have!

Also, I wanted to ask you at what point you would get more constructive on the drillers as a whole. I know you are a long-term "stuff" bull, but I am curious to know what would be the catalyst for you to add to energy holdings. Hope you have a great Holiday Season!

Regards, Minyan Jeremy


MJ,

Thanks for the kind vibes--it's hard to believe that we've been at this Minyan thang for close to five years. It's come a long way--particularly in the last two years after President Fish and our outstanding editorial team emerged. The 'Ville is a community which means, by definition, it's not about me. It's about us--the collective us--which includes Minyans like you.

To your question, I would say that "right here, right now" is as good an entry point as I can see from a defined risk standpoint. In addition to the 50- and 200-day moving averages, we're sitting on the right shoulder of reverse dandruff. So, through a pure technical lens, the set-up is strong.

There are other metrics, obviously---fundies, structural and psychological. How those juxtapose remain to be seen but, from a pure trading standpoint, I use technicals as a framework with which to define risk. The risk--not only to the drillers but to any and all asset classes--is deflation.

That's not on anyone's radar (outside the 'Ville) right now but rest assured that by the time it is, it'll be long baked into the price action. THAT is the macro risk and it's worthy of a mention as we watch the dollar grind higher and asset classes drip.

With that said, if we define our risk--say, using OSX 198 as a stop--we'll take the emotion out of a trade. And if they rally into January (as they did last year), we can always roll our stops higher.

Just a thought and hope it helps


Random Thoughts

  • SOX 463ish (200-day moving average) is a level of lore for bovine galore.

  • As past support is future resistance, look for TRAN 4600 to be an ursine backstop for those trafficking in the trannies.

  • Trafficking in the trannies? Is it Friday night already Farley?

  • Note the early jig in silver, which is sporting a percent plus morning gain for the first time in recent memory.

  • Eat your heart out Sports Illustrated! The NY Post stole your cover jinx moxie with its pot of Goldman, at the end of the rainbow.

  • I asked on Tuesday if the path of maximum frustration (into year-end) was a total eclipse of the heart. While we have our key tells in tow, I continue to feel that this twist would flummox the most folks.

  • Can't take my eyes off of you, this Google gap is for Boo, a level to watch, a potential kick in the crotch....

  • Tell Check! Breadth is bunk again (2:1 negative), the brokers are off a percent and Citi has flipped the downside switch, the dollar is grinding higher (an equity contra-tell), retail holds a bid (must be Macke, who just walked into MVHQ), mini-golf scores are way down and the potential for protein is at an all-time high.

  • Before you tie one on and get behind the wheel of a car this holiday season, give Joel a visit. He was a great man, a true friend and a kind soul. And now he's gone.

  • Wall Street is changing. We've spoken about it for some time and it's coming to bear. Remember Minyans, one of the greatest perspectives we can have is to view obstacles as opportunities.

  • SunMicro $5.50 remains tight and defined risk for the Matador Crowd.

  • 2007 is gonna be an exciting year for Minyan faithful. We'll be launching MVTV, the Exchange, our children's initiative and alotta other "stuff." It's hard to believe that we've been riding the critter vibe for five years. And it's equally amazing to think about where we'll be five years out.

  • Thank you for sharing your journey with us. The 'Ville wouldn't "be" without folks like you.

  • Have a healthy, happy and safe holiday stretch, Minyans, and I'll see you on the other side of the new year.
Position in financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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