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Random Thoughts


Thin tapes make for big moves!

  • But was he talking out of both sides of his mouth?

  • What did my opener have to do with the tape? Psychology is one of our four primary market metrics (technical, structural, fundamental). And, for what it's worth, I would offer that the disconnect between perception (VXO 10) and reality (read the news) is perhaps the largest I've ever seen.

  • In addition to being my closest friend, Minyanville President Kevin Wassong is also--without a doubt--the smartest media mind I have ever come across. If you haven't read his 2006 media outlook, please put it on your required reading list for the holidays. It's most certainly food for thought.

  • Gold is getting jiggy with it today---to the tune of ten bananas--and has recaptured the flag that is $500/oz. Please note that, as a function of the slippage in Barrick Gold (ABX) and Placer Dome (PDG), the XAU is noticably lagging.

  • Exit Strategy?

  • "While many are focused on the 2-10 year yield curve inversion (which has yet to happen) because of what took place following 2000 inversion - it is important to remember the 2-10 inverted on 12/23/97 (followed by +17% SPX by 4/8/98) and multiple times from 2/17/98-7/23/98 (during that period SPX up 13%). Yes that was followed by Long-term Capital decline, but after a MAJOR double digit rally in both instances." -- Snoop Tony Dwyer

  • "Saucy, eh?"

  • "When things like this happen it adjusts our perspective on life," one person wrote. "What was considered major yesterday doesn't amount to more than a footnote today."

  • "It's the year-end Wall Street waltz," says Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, "There's a lot of noise out there with projections and portfolio shenanigans. I'd turn off the machine and go on holiday" Wall Street Journal, December 22, 2005

  • What do you mean you're not coming to Festivus?

  • Gold, sliced any way you want it!

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag:

    "Toddo- I do not have a problem with professors speaking their mind and stating their opinions on the investment world as they see things. What I have a problem with is when some are not willing to adapt to changing circumstances. For example,I have a hard time with Snoop Dwyer because he is bullish ALL THE TIME. As a true well wisher of the Ville, I want to let you know that you have to ensure that your professors do not lose their importance by becoming one dimensional and not adapting. Thanks, Minyan Arun"


    You know I call it as I see it--sometimes right, sometimes wrong but always honest. I respectfully disagree with your "take" on Snoop. I've known (and read) him for over six years and have seen him rootin' tootin' bearish (and right) at times. Brian Reynolds as well--he dabbled in Red Dye immediately prior to the 2000 meltage. Neither are one-sided or one dimensional--that's simply not a fair statement and doesn't do them--or their work--justice. I continue to have massive amounts of respect for any approach that has produced consistent returns and I'll continue to read them for as long as they share their spirit. Thanks kindly, and have a fantastic holiday.

  • My eyes continue to flicker between our six feelers of good fortune. Thus far, the trannies, semis and Russell are trading above their technical inflections while the BKX, XBD and S&P continue to look up with envy.

  • Toga! Toga! Toga!

  • General Malaise? Note the Detroit Piston (GM) as it continues to regress. As sad as it is, and not a shocker to most, I think their workers get shafted on their pension ala United Air.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.

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