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Random Thoughts


Is this my last chance to dance?

  • The trannies, riding the coattails of FedEx (FDX), are up a deuce (2.5%) and trying to mount TRAN 4200. Please add this technical tickle to our existing list of minxy inflections (BKX 106, XBD 200, SOX 485, Russell 680, S&P 1270) as we edge ourselves over the Hump.

  • Please note that three of the four "traditional" tech horsemen (Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL), Cisco (CSCO)) are not jockeying for upside position during this lift.

  • Google (GOOG), the equestrian of choice for modern day performance anxiety jockeys, stumbled as she approached the Hump Day half-way. Please watch this as a psychology tell.

  • You should see the toast, we couldn't even get it through the door!

  • Johnny used to work on the docks. Now he's the centerfielder for the NY Yankees!

  • Is the MTA strike a real-time example of the societal acrimony we've been eyeing? As my pal Jeff Saut would say, "You betcha!"
  • "Not since Gandhi swept the Oscars in 1982 has GM traded at these levels. Whether that makes it a buy or a sell is unclear, but I never saw Gandhi, and I have no plans to see GM common in my portfolio either." -- Lehman Technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • "The COT data just released shows the smart money 'commercials' long a record 113,525 Treasury bond contracts and large and small speculators and traders short roughly the same number. Can you say SHORT SQUEEZE? Also, this comes at a time when the Conference Board's Interest Rate Expectations Survey hovers at a record bearish position for bonds." -- Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Who needs peanut butter jelly time when we have Chanukah coming up quick?

  • 2005 was a strong showing for the Critter Nation as we strengthened our base and expanded our reach. And, as we ready to sling-shot into '06, I have strong confidence in saying "you ain't seen nothing yet!"

  • The spread between volatility (VXO) and the S&P has widened to levels that bode well for Boo. Please keep that in mind regardless of which way the fray sways.

  • I woulda let him play for the love of the game.

  • Oh Nikkei you're so fine, you're so fine you blow my mind, hey Nikkei, hey Nikkei! While we were sleeping, Japan quietly glided to fresh '05 highs, adding some acne to an already fine year.

  • Bring him to the Birdland!

  • After a few sessions of pharma digestion, the drugs are trying to find their horse again. As it stands, the DRG is attempting to establish a base above the 200-day moving average (DRG 322)

  • "But to understand where we're going, we must also look at how we're getting there. That, to me, is the true disconnect between perception and reality and the key to making smart financial choices as we look ahead."

  • Buzz Bit (11:50 AM)

    • Pop Quiz!

      The game is getting interesting and interestinger, eh? With Hoofy knock, knock, knockin' on acne's door, Google (GOOG) decides to slip into Red Dye and plant seeds of a trap door in the bovine keppe. One stock does not a market make, we know, but this is living (and real-time) proof that risk is a two-sided equation.

      While I offered earlier that I don't have an uber-strong feel on the tick-to-tick shtick, the (potentially bearish) spread between volatility (VXO) and the S&P keeps flashing behind my eyes. That doesn't dictate direction, we know, but it's food for thought as we watch (what might be) the last gasp effort from the Matador Crowd.

      As it stands, breadth remains buff (2:1) and our four feelers (BKX, XBD, RLX, S&P) are bumping up against resistance. With the VXO now a single digit midget, I'll ask critters of all shapes and sizes to keep their right paw, hoof and hand up.

      As always, I hope this finds you well.

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position in select pharma, financials
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