By Todd Harrison Dec 21, 2004 3:25 pm
Fare ye well into the bell!
Moses come ridin' up on a quasar
His spurs were jingling, the door was ajar
His buckle was silver, his manner was bold
And I asked him to come in out of the cold.
The afternoon drift is a green bovine gift as the bears have been scared by the turnaround lift. While I can't say that today's fray is a shocker, I will offer that the attendant meltage in the volatility indices warrants attention. Single digit vols may be the next best thing to six minute abs but the velocity of the slippage raises a flag. It's one thing to sense that nobody is short but now that the bulls are flaunting it, they've exposed themselves to potential humility.
The risk to Boo is that the rally is getting "loud" just as portfolio managers reach for their pens. We've spoken about performance anxiety (and long squeeze potential) and that perception has now become a reality. The twist to this gist, at least for today, is that beta isn't participating (much less leading). Yes, the semis are sprinting but they've been the laggards--the four-letter freaks and traditional sneaks have yet to jet. Bull trap or bear trap? Not sure--but the fate of the tape may rest in the answer to that question.
For all intents and purposes, the catalyst calendar is a non-event from here on in. The psychology metric is all that really matters into year-end and that'll shape the landscape. Indeed, the Ice Capades analogy is as apt as ever as traders bum rush the pond and look to bond. I will only say that the temperature better support this sport. For if this log rolls over, there will be a critter cremation unlike anything we've ever seen. I don't wanna be a Scrooge--nor will I be--just please make sure that your laces are tied.
I'm gonna keep this vibe short as it's getting mighty tight in the hallowed halls. The Minyanville holiday auction will end at 4pm EST today and the top bid will join our family at tomorrow night's Festivus. After that, I'm off like a prom dress and will be AWOL and incommunicado through the new year. It's been a mighty long time since I spiritually refocused and if 2005 shapes up like I believe it will, I'll need a full tank and charged batteries once the calendar page turns. Wa.....sabi!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
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