Patience can be a bear's best friend!
What may be somewhat surprising is that once the market swallows the next couple of weeks, we enter what has been a treacherous time, at least for the Nasdaq 100. Since 1986, the NDX has only gone three years without seeing at least a 5% drop within a 10 day window in January. That phenomenon has happened in each of the last 13 years running. 11 out of the 15 years that did show such a short-term peak formed its apex before the 12th trading day of the new year - on average it topped out around the 8th trading day of the month. 68% of the time, the decline was between 5.8% and 12.4%, so these are considerable corrections we're talking about.
With trader sentiment where it is now, should the positive seasonality hold up as it has consistently in the past, then any gains gotten I believe will be given back during or before February. The historical evidence for a pullback given the figures we're seeing are too strong, and the January "give-back" too consistent, to not have some faith that we'll see today's prices or lower early next year.
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