By Todd Harrison Dec 20, 2004 12:03 pm
S's over N's or N's under S's?
- The other side of the M&A coin? Perhaps CEO's are buying growth in the absence of organic alternatives. That may not impact the "perception is reality" migration but it talks to the anemic GDP in the face of negative real rates.
- I don't know Ricky and I'm certainly not a doctor. But having known several people with acute bi-polar disorder, the signs seem telling to me.
- Sorry for that "holiday burp" in the Minyanville service this morning. There was a disconnect at the server level that has since been fixed and we should be good to go. If Minyans are still having trouble, please don't hesitate to contact us directly.
- "Our trend indications remain the most bullish aspect of this market, while sentiment figures remain the most concerning. The former keeps the latter from letting intellectual hubris salt the fertile soil that often accompanies euphoric market attitudes, just beware." --Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers
- All a man has is his word and his name. Take note, Franklin Raines.
- Assuming Rudolph were in front, there are 40,320 ways to arrange the other eight reindeer.
- Mr. P--the "all class" Bucs fan from Tampa--has informed me that he can't make it to Minanfestivus on Wednesday but that he'll MATCH any bid up to $15,000. To say that I'm humbled by this gesture would be an understatement but it underscores the philanthropic fabric of the Minyanville community. Thank you CP!
- Sooner or later, he's gonna have to find someone with 20/20 vision.
- S's over N's. We see it in the breadth (positive NYSE, negative Nazz) and the leadership (BKX vs. SOX).
- 2004 Stories.
- Rent increases in Silicone Valley.
- A "crude type" correction still can't be ruled out for the metals (and I would still assign a 25% chance of outright deflation emerging) but my sense continues to be that both of these asset classes (energy and metals) will have the wind at their back for years to come.
- Of course it is!
- Russia WILL matter---and the more you know, the better prepared you will be.
- Smart commentary after a weekend at Bernie's.
- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder has compiled his "new bellwether index" comprised of the Chicago Merc (CME:NYSE), eBay (EBAY:NASD), the Philly Housing Index (HGX:NYSE), Target (TGT:NYSE) and Yahoo! (YHOO:NASD) in an effort to capture the combination of institutional representation, "growth," momentum and investor appetite for risk. He opines that 1) it's bullish from a trend perspective (well above the 50- and 200-day moving average) and 2) it's pretty extended (27% above the 200-day moving average). The second point is worthy of a nose scrunch as it's unusual to see an index trade 30% or more above its 200-day moving average.
- This may help explain the voodoo economics!
- Merrill (MER:NYSE) stands out like a drunk Santa at the Duke & Duke Christmas party.
- "As for the overall equity markets, we continue to think that the markets "float" into the new year. Indeed, it appears as if those that have wanted to "sell" have already "sold" leaving only "buyers" about. Still, it is difficult to see any BIG moves in either direction right here and the volatility index (VIX) sub-12 reading tends to confirm this view. Those thoughts also "foot" with our sense that while the 28-session "buying stampede" ended on December 3rd, the upside momentum generated by that stampede was unlikely to dissipate quickly during the ebullient month of December. That said, we can't seem to figure out how to make much money on a trading basis given our sense that 90% of the rally is probably now behind us." --Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James.
- The Festivus auction will end at 4:00 EST tomorrow (Tuesday) and the winner (with a guest) will join the Minyanville family as we celebrate life, love and another year of holiday cheer!
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