The Long Song
Today wouldn't be a bad session for Rolling Stones!
I can't believe the news today
Oh, I can't close my eyes
And make it go away
How long, how long must we sing this song?
The Freak has arrived and you better make way 'cause the critters are here and they're ready to play. As Team MVHQ cut some rug last night at the Red Lion-we'll always fall on our sword to support our friends-I'm gonna invoke my creative license and opt for some open spew. Hey, it's Friday....work with me.
First and foremost...
After patiently waiting for S&P 1270ish to emerge, I slipped two legs in my metaphorical bear costume into yesterday's close (50% conviction on the short side). We've actively discussed both sides of the year-end ride and, truth be told, real risk remains to both camps. This is a pure risk-reward play (with a stop set above 1275) so it's worthy of my shot. And, to be consistent with recent vibes, this is a "pure spec" that is trying to make a little hay while the sun shines.
Who you callin' a dummy?
On the other end of my bar bell, I've got my spate of "put away stuff" that is metals and energy. With gold pushing through $500/oz, silver ticklin' multiyear highs and the energy patch playing red bull, the question is begged: who's zooming who? On one hand, the semis broke out through SOX 485 (and pulled the NDX along for the ride) while those pesky financials are thisclose from acne of their own. Will the real market leaders please stand up, please stand up, please stand up?
Again, when the dust settles and we edge into an '06 cadence, my sense is that energy and metals will reclaim their fame as the techs and financials of yesteryear. The former will, in my view, ultimately recapture the top weighting in the S&P while the latter should shine bright on a relative basis. That's not entirely clear at present-this latest lift is, how shall we say...broad? But there are alotta year-end agendas in play that are clouding the eyes of the most faithful of tape watchers.
Snoop Tony Dwyer sparked some great debate of late and, well, that's what the 'Ville is all about. When Minyan Mark posed some posture questions, I tried to walk the delicate line between thought process and application. That's easier said than done-particularly in our immediate gratification A.D.D society-but my hope and goal is that Minyans understand the distinction. What's more, as we're a financial infotainment community sans advice, we're making a bet that shared learning has a higher half-life than the next best guru.
And what would a freak be without some morning Randoms...
We flagged several stocks on yesterday's Buzz that just weren't acting right given the equity ecstasy. They included Fannie Mae, Wal-Mart, Lehman and General Electric. Keep your eyes on these spies if and when the tape chills.
Speaking of chills, a gorilla bought roughly 250,000 QQQQ December 41 puts over the last few sessions. Even at the discounted mark-to-market (.20), that's still a cool five beans.
Minyan Charlie Mangano brought down the house last night at the Red Lion and, in the process, quite possibly edged the Rolling Stones back into my all-time top five musical bands. I would say more on the subject but, alas, I think I left my voice there.
Last but certainly not least, we'll be kicking off the much anticipated all-star guitar auction next Wednesday to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. We'll focus on three primary beneficiaries for this snazzy event-Little Kid's Rock, Free Arts NYC and Jacob's Cure. We sincerely appreciate any and all Minyan love as we do our part to end the year with a little jingle in their jeans.
Good luck today.
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