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Random Thoughts


A banana Toddo? Behave!


  • With yesterday's green monster fresh in our keppe and crude slippin' anew, the path of least resistance is higher for the morning. My sense--and not advice--is that afternoon supply will materialize as traders price in the "what ifs?" of Intel (INTC:NASD) and Beeks.

  • Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, sauté it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.

  • Am I over-thinking things when I see a headline in the Wall Street Journal titled "Fed View Shifting on Inflation: Rate Rises Likely" and immediately think that groundwork is being laid in front of tomorrow's payrolls?

  • A green light to the Red Sea?

  • A pinstripe Jedi mind trick?

  • I enjoyed some time with Succo and Reamer last night. Would that be a Screamerfest?

  • More 'flation debation.

  • "In other words, the last time spreads narrowed like this, they stayed narrow for years (and got even narrower than they are now) and fostered an environment of seemingly limitless financing for M&A activities and buybacks. While a panic is thus always a possibility, we think the odds are greater that we are moving into a 1995-1998 financing environment (with the potential of a more severe 2000-2002 type of environment to follow if companies keep replacing equity with debt). We keep seeing more and more CEO's saying that buying back shares is their best use of cash." -Brian "the Iron Horse" Reynolds

  • The other artists in the room were extremely pissed off!

  • "Long ago, I learned that most of the time it doesn't pay to bet against the American consumer. There are rare occasions, however, when that rule doesn't apply . . . I now believe that another exception is in the offing. The American consumer is an accident waiting to happen." - Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley

  • Fat chance!

  • And you wonder why the dollar is under pressure? While the selling pressure could abate (counter-trend rally), my belief is that the foreign diversification away from the dollar is a secular trend that will continue for a long time. Last night, while spending most of my time listening rather than talking, I offered that the dollar squalor is still the stealth bear. THAT is the scariest aspect of this entire dynamic, in my view--if CNBC reported dollar adjusted levels instead of stock prices, folks would freak!

  • There has been a TON going on behind the scenes and Minyans should see an announcement next week regarding what I consider the biggest news to ever hit the 'Ville. I've been pouring in 20 hour days in preparation for this and it was--and is--well worth it!

  • I ran into Boo last night and he said "I haven't taken a beating like that since I put a banana down my pants and turned a monkey loose!"

  • "I'm not too optimistic about hedge funds because you won't be making a lot of money from stocks in the next 15 to 20 years and bonds will be doing horribly . . . I'm told there are almost 10,000 hedge funds. With overcrowding, there will be some charlatans and incompetence. You can't have that many smart 29-year-olds around." - Jim Rogers, December 1, 2004 (Bloomberg)

  • Nothing new, but well said.

  • "I've never known a man worth his salt who in the long run, deep down in his heart, didn't appreciate the grind, the discipline. There is something in good men that really yearns for, needs, discipline and the harsh reality of head-to-head combat . . . I firmly believe that any man's finest hour - his greatest fulfillment of all he holds dear - is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." -- Vince Lombardi

  • Good luck today.

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