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Random Thoughts


Hey, it could be worse-it could be raining!

  • Consumer costs are muted and producer costs are elevated? That slicing sound you hear is corporate margins getting snipped. After all, there's only so much cost cutting that can be done before the scissors find a new victim.

  • Speaking of snippage, Happy Chanukah!

  • Was Turnaround Tuesday really #1 in the UK, US, France, Ireland, South Africa, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Norway, the Philippines, New Zealand, Japan, Venezuela, Argentina, Spain, Portugal, Belgium and Mexico?

  • As go the financials, so goes the tape? Yep, this we know and, while the grabby green action quelled Boo's dew this morning (and gave Snapper the wink), the piggies are starting to wiggle into Red Dye. Watch this complex, Minyans--when the financials (BKX and XBD) synch with 2:1 breadth (either way), it's a high probability set-up. BKX 115 remains the level of lore for bovine galore.

  • Hey, it could be worse-it could be raining!

  • Monopoly Peg? See the greenback give some green back to the tune of fitty bips. We offered (pre-market) that this would likely light a match under the XAU and, true to form, that complex is up a deuce.

  • Thai Stick? had nosty morning breadth--454 of 458 stocks were lower--before the dude in the air traffic control room plugged the lights back in. The action-down 15% at a point-sparked some Buzzage in the city of critters. Among 'em:

    • What Happened in Thailand?
      John Succo

      Thailand raised reserve requirements and their stock market is down almost 15% overnight. This is one of those market tells that many may ignore, but I believe has great implications.

      All the world's securities markets are tied together as liquidity generated by new credit from central banks has washed over everything and created an atmosphere of low growth and no risk. But that perception is incorrect. Low growth yes, but not low risk. Risk has grown (debt) by definition with more liquidity.

      Now Thailand
      's leaders are saying they are worried about speculation. Thailand is only generating a small amount of liquidity and is not a major influence, but they trade with the ones who are and these things are all tied together. If central banks balk at the amount of credit in the system you will see the liquidity come out much faster than you saw it go in.

      Does anyone remember where the last contagion started in 1998?

  • And…

    • Just how heavy is the dollar?
      By Lance Lewis

      "Thailand has to introduce capital controls in order to stem the dollar's collapse against the baht of all things, the very currency whose collapse triggered the Asian crisis in 1997. This will likely just be the first of such attempts by foreigners to halt the dollar's collapse due to its harmful effects on trade, and upon seeing the effect on Thailand's financial markets, it's obviously a losing battle. As a result, it could be the catalyst for a renewed move into gold, as investors see the handwriting on the wall of the dollar's demise."

  • Drugs not hugs? If big pharma can stiffen through DRG 350, we could see both. Don't anticipate the anticipator, Minyans, but "see" the upcoming resistance.

  • This is a heckuva holiday card. Hey, if I just pocketed another $800 million, I'd have a snazzy online greeting too!

  • Don't you just hate loud chewers? Like, in the movie theater, that person next to you who eats popcorn with their mouth open? Chaps me arse.

  • Hey Snapper, whatcha doing in the drillers? They opened with a deep crimson hue and have flipped the Matador Switch in a big way. OSX 200ish can be used as a bovine backstop for those looking for a run into January.

  • Hump? What hump?


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Position in financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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