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Oh no!


Angst is running hot today. I am writing an earlier article because I will be guest hosting on CNNfn from 3-4pm EST. My message (right or wrong) will remain the same. I have learned over the past two years via a couple of great traders that it makes the most sense to sell euphoria and buy fear.

There is geo-political, economic and corporate profit angst (yes those three factors we have spoken about that have no identifiable resolution) running around all of Wall Street and frankly, I believe for good reason. Iraq is a matter of when not if, in my view. The economy IS weak or the Fed wouldn't have taken out more insurance in November. Corporate profits are unlikely to be up now due to prior sentence. So why would anyone look for an oversold bounce with these kind of risks? Because in my view we are in the twilight zone where we know they are there but still far enough away where some might buy for a trade based on oversold condition.

While things might not play out that way, I defer back to what those great couple of traders have taught me and what I see in front of me - fear and a near-term oversold enough tape to set up for a positive surprise. Nothing more than that because as I said this morning - the vast majority of the gains are likely behind investors for the time being.
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Imagine the amount of make-up it takes to cover my head!
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