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Random Thoughts

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...be on the lookout for some venomous equity vol in the weeks ahead.

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  • The Elephant is most certainly a Monday "must" read. Nice job B-Daddy.

  • If you were to ask me what I thought the path of maximum frustration was, I would say "Let December protection expire and then wax 'em into year-end." Not sure if it happens but it's certainly within the possibility spectrum.

  • Note silver as it's streaking 4% lower (following a similar smelt on Friday). If volatility migrates across asset classes-which is intuitive given our oft-discussed market DNA-Sammy should be on the lookout for some venomous equity vol in the weeks ahead.

  • Tricks of the Trade. We know that stocks that open flat (with green pre-market futes) imply supply. Ergo, breadth that opens "good but not great"-as it did this morning-was a stealth wink that a downside test was in the cards. We spoke about this on the Buzz which, for those who aren't Buzzin', continues to host the best content in the 'Ville. Not sellin', just tellin'.

  • Vols are up some but still very low historically and, in my view, significantly detached from reality. Stock replacements and married (mallied?) puts make a slew of sense to me.

  • Yeah, there's no inflation. Pull this leg and it plays jingle bells.

  • "Last week, I mentioned that I was cautious on natural gas and oil service stocks in the near-term. I expect the natural gas storage surplus to increase over the next few weeks as we have had warmer weather recently than this time last year. I don't see any rush to buy the dips just yet…" Professor Adam Michael on today's Buzz.

  • Please note that market breadth was "totally flipped!" Not in a Randle Patrick McMurphy sense...more in a "mirror image" from the out-of-the-gate scrimmage. Losers are trumping winners 2:1 on both the big board and the Nazz.

  • The rub? Yep, it's those financials. Until they wilt (below BKX 115), the bovine will opine that the market is fine.

  • LT is special, eh? I told anyone who would listen (before the season) that this kid would win the MVP but who knew he would be this good?

  • Crude rallied three of the last four weeks (along with equities). With crude lower today, please remember that the rising--or shrinking--tide of liquidity is a different and distinct lens from the "oil down, equities up, Mongo psyched" mentality.

  • Hey Mello, a punch and run? Both sides of that trade taint the Orange blood we both share.

  • The Homies are rollin' down the Street this morning (HGX -60 bips). Again, HGX 240 is a defined ursine back stop for those inclined to bang with Boo.

  • The five DVD's currently rotating through 60" of pure plasma pleasure? Don Henley, The Boss, Sting, Stevie Ray and Clapton.


R.P.

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