The Fosbury Flop
Here's a BIG kiss to Mark Mazzer on his last second charity bid!
Sally, take my hand
Travel south crossland
Put out the fire
Don't look past my shoulder
Wow, I guess I touched a nerve! To clarify, I didn't say that there was going to be a gazillion trillion dollars for sale on Friday's close (think Dr. Evil), I said my friends, that I was hearing that the NDX rebalancing MIGHT create that kind of size for sale. Two points of clarification: one, I have no way to know if this is the actual number and, even if I did, I don't try to game those kind of (edgeless) events. Two, often times when these situations occur, they're "worked" into such that it doesn't have huge impact by the time it occurs. If I was unclear or confusing, please accept my sincere apologies!
The bears seem to have a firm grip on the Minx and S&P 890 looks like it may be a memory soon. When critical sectors like the semis (down 7%) and the banks (down 2%) are this heavy and the internals are this skewed, Snapper typically likes to stay in his shell. Again, one monster buy program could make me look like a dope (again) but trading is about risk/reward and my sense is that the long side doesn't warrant the try.
Oracle headlines the after school specials today along with the semiconductor book-to-bill ratio, but we've also got a truckload of news tomorrow morning that should be on your radar, Radar. Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley all report earnings before the opening and they'll have a pretty big influence on the collective psychology. In addition, Mr. Beeks will release the jobless claims (exp. 400k) and the leading indicators (exp.6%) before joining Ophelia for some beef jerky at the Heritage Club. Speaking of Philadelphia, the Philly fed number will be released at high noon and while it's clearly a "lesser" catalyst, it should be mentioned.
Selfish Toddo has to run on the bell again so this will likely be the last post of the day. Barring a miraculous comeback, I'm likely going to go home with both legs firmly in my metaphorical bear costume (50% conviction on the short side). I like the idea of using a "stop loss" strategy on this trade because A) my year ends Friday and I want to go away naked and B) I continue to fear the stochastic snapback. If the market continues to burn lower, I'll lower my stop and continue to play. If my stop gets elected, I've defined my risk I won't look back.
Mark Mazzer has emerged out of left field and lofted a $3250 bid for the one-of-a-kind, signed-by-all, 1st annual charity benefit poster (see below). Remember, 100% of the (tax deductible) proceeds will be donated to my grandfather's foundation and I know he's smiling broadly from above. This poster will never be replicated and it will be a historic memorial to a great man. Send your bids into firstname.lastname@example.org as there's only one day left!
Take the time to smile tonight and, as it's the holidays, try to do something Joel in honor of my lost friend. The tape is nutty and the world is fragile...but you have control over how you act and what you do. Make yourself proud, cookie-it's all good.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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