If "good" news in TXN and INTC started this sell-off, will bad news in Micron end it?
It's a crisp, sunny morning in Minyanville and a smug Boo is chewing a Krispy Kreme as he digests this morning's action. It's funny, he always seems to be more visible when the futures are looking lower and, judging from the pep in his step, he's in a pretty good mood. You guys know how I feel about celebrating before a trade is taken and I've been doing my best to ignore the furry freak and his opposable thumbs. Clear the mechanism and focus your efforts, my friends-today is big.
On the heels of Micron "earnings" and ASML job cuts, the semis will set the psychological tone for tech today. We've already discussed SOX 330 as an upside resistance (failed there yesterday) but toss SOX 307ish on your radar as well. That's a level that's held a handful of times (and a handful of hands) in the last week or so and it becomes support. In NDX land, 1050 will once again act as resistance while NDX 1000ish will provide support. Finally, for the S&P, 900 continues to be a pivot point while 910ish is resistance and the congestion zone below is support. In other words, S&P 880-900 is a cluster that's held for over two months.
Other than the red SOX, keep an eye on the frisky financials as Bank of New York blew last night and could pressure the group. The financial complex has held up surprising well which, bias aside, is the most positive action in the marketplace. You know I feel that the brokers are all teenagers in waiting but for purposes of the "day to day," we must respect (not defer to) that traction. Other tells today include the retailers (broke their 50-day moving average yesterday and were the tell), the greenback, crude and our trusty internals.
I've been giving a lot of thought to how I'm going to play these last three sessions of my year and, as always, I'll give you my truthful read. I see what Tony's looking at-stochastics close to buy signals, S&P holding support, seasonal factors, Daisy-but I can't stop looking at all of the dandruff (head and shoulder patterns) and, to add insult to injury, Boo keeps faux coughing and blurting out "Razor Burn!"
I'm boarding a plane on Sunday and the last thing I want to do in the middle of the south pacific is think of the Q's! As such, I'm going to implement a tactical strategy such that I can participate if the market continues lower but define my risk if it rallies. I'll be identifying appropriate "stop" levels on my bear costume (currently three appendages or 75% conviction on the short side) and if they're triggered, I'm dance naked into the weekend.
In a most unexpected turn of events, my good friend Neil Glassman has entered the fray with a $2500 high bid for the one-of-a-kind Minyanville signed poster (see below). This is good karma, Neil, and I know Ruby is smiling from above as 100% of the (tax deductible) proceeds will be donated to The Ruby Foundation for Children's Education. The auction ends on tomorrow's close so it's not too late to get involved. Send your bids to firstname.lastname@example.org, please, and good luck!
See you after the opening.
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