If the Nazz bubble was twice as big as the Nikkei, does that mean we're in for a 38 year bear market?
All is quiet on New Year's Day
A world in white gets underway
I want to be with you, be with you night and say
Nothing changes on New Year's Day
Good morning and welcome back to the winds of winter. If we had to choose one shocker during these last two weeks, it would have to be the surprisingly quiet nature of the market. The premature anticipation of a blastoff faded into the bold declaration of a burn-but thus far, it's been a sidewinders dream. Will either camp beat their chest in time for the Rose Bowl or will the one outcome that nobody predicted-nothing-come to fruition? We won't have to wait long to find out, young pugglepuss-the answers lie in the days ahead.
Yesterday morning, the dominant theme was the insistent efforts of the macro funds to break out the tape. The Thornton Mellon Triple Lindy resistance of SOX 330, S&P 910 and NDX 1050 looked like child's play at first but, when push came to shove, supply overwhelmed Hoofy's heroes. Indeed, it wasn't for a lack of trying. The 70,000 QQQ calls, the multiple sevens in the QQQ's and SMH's...one show after another was of hedge fund buyers trying to push 'em through. The zillion dollar question (and perhaps the fate of the year end tape) is: what do these guys do with their inventory if the rally doesn't unfold?
Bulls get loud during seas of green and the bears tend to roar during red messes but the only profitability (of late) has been to take the other side of the emotion du jour. Even so, unless you were razor sharp with "laser" precision, chances are that you're spinning your wheels. I've often opined that the ability not to trade will be as important as trading ability and that's been a costly lesson for the pressers and guessers. I'll say it till I'm blue in the face-patience and discipline, patience and discipline, patience and discipline. Waiting for your pitch and identifying that elusive edge will allow you to stay in the game as the overcapacity is fried away.
We power up our turrets this morning to find some semi-negative semi-chatter on the heels of Micron's earning's report last night. The stock is currently offered with an 11 handle on it which, by the way, brings it right back into the early October abyss. As many traders believe that this stock is a leading indicator for tech, I wanted to put it on your radar. Also, and only because I'd be remiss in not mentioning it, Conseco filed for bankruptcy and, although it wasn't a shocker, per se, it's certainly not good. Overseas, the news isn't that much better. The slippy Nikkei is flirting with fresh 19 year lows and German Confidence (IFO) is at its lowest level in 11 months...which brings DAX 3000 back onto our trading radar (currently 3100).
On a more pleasant note, the 1st annual charity auction is staring to heat up and John B. Collier has once again taken the lead with a $2000 bid! The one-of-a-kind 13" x 19" matted poster (see below) is framed in plexiglass tm, signed by each of the critters and, best of all, 100% of the (tax deductable) proceeds will be donated to The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Charity. I know it's been a difficult year for many but I can assure you there's nothing better than giving something back-especially when it comes to kids! Feel free to join the fray by sending your bid to firstname.lastname@example.org and let your love shine during this holiday season.
Good luck today
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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