By Todd Harrison Dec 17, 2004 12:44 pm
Bent not broken?
Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide
No escape from reality
The Friday freak has sprung a leak as traders look to end their week. The combination of Pfizer flaccidity (PFE:NYSE), rude crude (+4%) and perceived supply (S&P rebalancing) is weighing on the fray and keeping Hoofy away. While the ducks seem to be lining up in Red Dye, the very fact that they haven't cracked is prolly the biggest positive. N's over S's (and plenty of stresses) as we ride the tide to the other side.
Market internals have skewed negative of late that has been the thorn in the bovine side. The Matador Crowd has shaken it off but, as Bernie Schaeffer offered on today's Buzz, the list of Dow stocks that have been taken out back and shot during the last three months includes American International Group (AIG: NYSE) , Coca-Cola (KO: NYSE), General Motors (GM: NYSE), Merck (MRK: NYSE), Pfizer (PFE: NYSE) and Wal-Mart (WMT: NYSE). As these aren't the sexy sirens that most associate with "risk," it remains to be seen if the once rubber bullets will soon start to sting.
It would seem to me that today's tape is easier to "see" than the next coupla weeks. With the supply side filling in and the bunk breadth, I believe that tight (and trailing) stops can be used to play the south side (not advice). What remains to be seen, of course, is whether the emotional "need" for higher prices (as a function of performance anxiety) can bridge the gap between here and ('05) money flows. And try as I might, I can't shake the vision of the bulls crowding onto thy golden pond.
A few random observations to note include a gigglin' Google (GOOG:NASD), the Citigroup (C:NYSE) 200-day ($46.50), dry horsemen (N's) and a stealth bid to the brokers. As I am trying to tie up alotta loose ends before my required respite, my exposure is more "situations" and less "pure market." I've learned the hard way that anything less than 100% laser focus is a one-way ticket to the pain trade. I know you know what I mean, cookie, and you know that I'm just being honest.
Finally, and entirely more important, Mr. P has stepped into the Festivus fray and is bidding $5,000 for next week's top honors. I've had the honor of meeting this Bucs fan before (Minyans in the Mountains) and I know he's secretly hoping that he stealths his way to NYC. I'll promise this--Wednesday night will be fun, it'll be informative and it'll be full of knowledge and spirit. And as the proceeds from this auction will benefit The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education, it'll also be full of purpose.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
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