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An Inside Look


We start our hump and, with the exception of the sloppy Jinx, the world markets on either side of the flatline.


Good morning and welcome back to the Minyan shack. Yesterday's spunk shook off the funk of the previous day's stinky skunk. It was a tale of two tapes that left sour grapes for the furry young bears of all sizes and shapes. Not only did techs sidestep a wreck, the industrials started a new upside trek. Can the green jig continue to bring home the cheer? Or will Santa's sleigh stumble from the piss drunk reindeer? It's Hump Day anew in the Minyanville zoo so batten those hatches as we giggle anew!

This morning's missive is gonna be a tale of two Toddo's. First, I wanna talk tape and the defined parameters in play to start the day. It's really pretty simple--the industrials are the beneficiary of the latest rotation migration and the Saddam gap opening is the upside line in the sand (resistance). The techs (which registered a non-confirmation Monday) have been trading that way as the SOX have been stinky and the QQQ's have been slinky. The NDX 50-day moving average rests above at 1409.

In addition to the crosscurrents--including but not limited to (tomorrow's) Beeks cameo, better brokerage earnings and Friday's expiry--we're also wading through a tape that is getting thin and thinner. The bulls are in countdown mode, the bears are pressing to impress and liquidity is fading like a pair of Levi's. There's surely money to be made (witness yesterday's 3% semi-Snapper or the 1% Dow tack) but it seems like the remaining players are the immediate gratification types. If you're gonna play either way, construct a strategy that defines your risk and allows for a margin of error.

Now, with all that said, I wanna talk turkey with the Minyanship. I've gotten a few emails recently asking if I'm "alright" as it seems that a bit of angst has been permeating my posts. I don't lie to you guys--I never have and never will--and I'll tell you that yes, I have been feeling it of late. It's been a long year, I haven't performed up to my standards and any semblance of balance is a distant memory. I am, for all intents and purposes, running on fumes and there's no shame in admitting that. It's only a shame if you do nothing about it.

Minyanville is an honest and open educational forum with benevolent intentions and philanthropic aspirations. I've long said that I want you to learn from my mistakes as well as my triumphs--I've seen both sides of that trade and without one, there would be no other. Any trader (or person) who tells you that they haven't endured adversity is either lying or in for a rude awakening. Some choose to sweep their errors under a rug and pretend they don't exist. I maintain that the difference between a mistake and a lesson is the ability to learn from it.

Why am I sharing this with you? Because that's who I am and I've always found writing to be a catharsis. In 50 years, when we look back at our life, the road we travel (and the manner in which we drive) will far outweigh the sporadic speed bumps we encounter. This hasn't been a banner trading year for yours truly but what's done is part of the past. I am so excited for 2004 that I can hardly contain my enthusiasm.

Starting in February, we're gonna revamp our humble town to include more features for the active Minyans (wait till you see these!), a slew of new value added sophisticated content (metals and technicals), the University of Minyanville (finally!) and the Minyanville Elementary school (get ready for critter kids!). In short, there's a lot to look forward to, the future looks bright and I can tell you this--I'm glad to be sharing it with my fellow Minyans.

Good luck today.

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