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Years Ending in "5"


Need to check the calendar to see which of my boys will show up - Hoofy or Boo


Years ending in "5", including those in secular bear trends, have been positive years:

The above chart shows the percentage of "years of the decade" that were down since the Dow Jones Industrials Average began trading in 1896. These data are organized by year of the decade. Years ending in zero are the worst performers, ending down 64% of the time throughout modern times (since 1896.) Years ending in "5" have never declined; they are the only "decade" years that have always ended up.

This year is one of those decade years ending in "5" - 2005. It has been a struggle. We have maintained that this decade is entrenched in a secular bear trend, but we also observed that the seasonal cycle for this year and for this current part of the year would allow for slightly higher reaction highs. Over the past month most major indices have indeed recovered to new reaction highs - highs that in many cases are multi-year highs. That said, the long-term patterns are rather flat, and the market is still under the highs set around the turn of the century.

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