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Housing Orgy



At risk of interrupting Hoofy's Cialis moment with Lennar (LEN) stock and the "great job" 'toons, there were some conspicuously unanswered questions on the conference call:

  • Why did they miss Q4 estimates by $200M?
  • Why will they miss Q1 estimates by 7%?
  • Why will they miss Q2 estimates by $.01?
  • Other than the "that's our model" explanation, just how are they going to blow away estimates in Q3 and Q4 while missing in Q1 and Q2? (Sorry guys, the "back-end loaded land sales" answer does not cut it given that, on a yearly basis, land sales contribute less than 5% of revenues)
  • Backlog is about 30% of 2005 revenue estimates; It was more than 40% of revenues last year this time. Care to explain?
  • With Q4 revenues missing by $200M, why did backlog fall by more than $1b Qtr. over Qtr.?
  • Should LEN explain how they will increase unit sales by 16%, while the NAHB estimates a decrease in new home sales of 5-10%?
  • If it's increasing market share, from whom? I ask because 60% of LEN's business is in TX, CA, FL and the Mid-Atlantic, not exactly undiscovered territories, and every home builder you ask states unequivocally that they will be taking market share in 2005 in those very markets.

Don't have to get back to me ASAP Hoofy, but remember, certain conditions lasting more than 4 hours do require immediate medical attention.

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