Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Housing Orgy

By

PrintPRINT

At risk of interrupting Hoofy's Cialis moment with Lennar (LEN) stock and the "great job" 'toons, there were some conspicuously unanswered questions on the conference call:

  • Why did they miss Q4 estimates by $200M?
  • Why will they miss Q1 estimates by 7%?
  • Why will they miss Q2 estimates by $.01?
  • Other than the "that's our model" explanation, just how are they going to blow away estimates in Q3 and Q4 while missing in Q1 and Q2? (Sorry guys, the "back-end loaded land sales" answer does not cut it given that, on a yearly basis, land sales contribute less than 5% of revenues)
  • Backlog is about 30% of 2005 revenue estimates; It was more than 40% of revenues last year this time. Care to explain?
  • With Q4 revenues missing by $200M, why did backlog fall by more than $1b Qtr. over Qtr.?
  • Should LEN explain how they will increase unit sales by 16%, while the NAHB estimates a decrease in new home sales of 5-10%?
  • If it's increasing market share, from whom? I ask because 60% of LEN's business is in TX, CA, FL and the Mid-Atlantic, not exactly undiscovered territories, and every home builder you ask states unequivocally that they will be taking market share in 2005 in those very markets.

Don't have to get back to me ASAP Hoofy, but remember, certain conditions lasting more than 4 hours do require immediate medical attention.

No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
PrintPRINT
 
Featured Videos

WHAT'S POPULAR IN THE VILLE