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Jack and the Beanstalk

By

It's too early for a rally!

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Sugar Magnolia, blossoms blooming
Heads all empty and I don't care
Saw my baby down by the river
Knew she'd have to come up soon for air


(Grateful Dead)

The Minx sprouts green to begin our week and the games have officially begun. I have mixed emotions about this opening as miniature Boo is sitting on my right shoulder (ala Animal House) and screaming "Fade it! Fade it! Bang the heck out of those bids!!" On my other shoulder, a tiny Hoofy (dressed in a toga) is whispering "Todd, we know it's thin out there and the tape is relatively oversold. Stay disciplined!" I see both sides but I'm leaning more to the right as, well, I'm already half-dressed in my metaphorical bear costume (50% conviction on the short side).

The clearest theme out of the gate is the "S's over N's" action (S&P outperformance of NDX) and that's occurring largely on the heels of the financials. A general rule of thumb (for me, anyway) is that the banks are to the S's what the SOX is to the NDX. With the banks up almost two percent and the SOX flat, the action shouldn't come as a surprise. A check of the morning breadth supports this view as winners are beating losers 2:1 on the big board while it's more muted in four-letter land.

I gotta think the market is a "fade" (read: sale) the first attempt at 900 (there now), so I'm going to toss my other hat back on and play trader. I've got a lot going on in my crowded keppe right now and I've always used this column as a catharsis of sorts. As I continue to edge through this transition, I will share some thoughts with the readership such that we can share in the experience. It's all good.

Thanks, and hit 'em hard, baby!


position in qqq

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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