By Todd Harrison Dec 15, 2005 10:53 am
This is N-U-T-S NUTS!
- Truth be told (always), this started out as a morning column but the news (and price action) is flickering so quick, I've had to rework it several times. And you think I don't care...
- The metals have been like an A.D.D kid in a sensory overload environment while the currencies have seismically shifted underfoot. As we often discuss in the 'Ville, asset class volatility, when it occurs at this magnitude, generally rolls into equities at a point. Stay on your toes, Minyans, as these next ten sessions could be a humdinga!
- And you thought I was strange?
- Last night's Succofest was a "blink and ya missed it" affair but it might have been the most informational and educational session in our history.
- We were a bit early on the pharma vibe, which is a shocker, I know, but I continue to sense that there's a bigger picture. I'm unsure if it's an '05 play, an '06 play or both.
- Altria, as "expected," won reversal of the $10 billion Illinois verdict. Almost on cue, the Minx fell off her S&P 1270 perch as market internals puked. Were folks anticipating that the win would ignite acne? Sure feels that way. Is acne now out of the question? Not on a bet. Stay tight and light on your toes, Minyans, year-end could have more swings than a Hedonism vacation.
- Hansen (HANS) is off 7.5% today as (unconfirmed) chatta makes the rounds that Coke (CCE) and Pepsi (PEP) products are squeezing them off the shelves. If either was going to buy Hansen, as has been speculated, traders are wondering why they would be agressively pushing their own competing brands.
- "We don't know what you're going to do, but here's what we're focusing on: (1) We're sticking with our bullish call on gold in particular and commodities in general. This idea has worked pretty well since October 2001 and we don't see any reason to punish our winners. (2) If there is some problem with respect to the market then banks/financials should weaken. Given the technicals for the BKX we're figuring an important reversal is not likely right here. (3) Expecting the 10-year yield to work higher seems right intuitively but that ain't gonna give us any particular edge with respect to equities unless #2 occurs. (4) Leave the macro stuff to the pros, stick to stocks and group themes, and hope Santa Claus neatly wraps up Nomar Garciaparra for the Yankees." -- John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder
- What percent are YOU?
- A throne fit for a king?
- Goldman (GS) and the Mighty Bear (BSC) reported earnings this morning with the former pretty in pink and the latter fatter in green. XBD 200 is a benchmark, of sorts, and with S&P 1270 skewed by MO, may provide a tertiary tell.
- I've got it made, got it made, got it made....
- Mini-Minyan Mailbag (late day Buzz)
"Toddo- I saw your mention this morning about the move in the currencies. Based on the sharp nature of the rally in the yen, I suspect there was some coordinated market intervention.
A major driver of the last week or two of the gold rally was a short yen/long gold trade put on by the Japanese. I imagine the Fed and the BOJ decided the best way to extricate themselves from a potentially messy situation was to raise margins for TOCOM gold while doing some heavy selling to pressure the gold price.
They also bought yen, thereby attacking both sides of the trade and forcing speculators to unwind their positions. Here in the U.S., the CME is also raising margins for JPY futures. That's exactly how I'd do it if I were in charge of things. Minyan Brian"
Wouldn't shock me. Remember, the only difference between intervention and manipulation is communication. Does that brand me as a conspiracy theorist? Perhaps, but if that's the price I pay for sharing my honest opinions, it's a label I'm willing to live with.
- Dude, she had dog breath!
- "The marginal high in the S&P was confirmed by S&P specific breadth, but 65-day highs failed to expand in any significant ways. We continue to call the market's complaint department to voice our concerns about sentiment and the failure of NYSE breadth to confirm, but their customer service department has not yet been cooperative in resolving our issues. " Lehman Technician Jeff DeGraaf
"Hey John, Look at the NZD/JPY cross this morning. Looks to me like a bunch of carry traders are feeling the pain. The volatility is extraordinary lately. Minyan Mark"
MM- This trade goes into the category of "well that didn't work". The yen carry trade is an example that there is no free money, something our printing happy FED should learn. Those hedge fund managers, banks, and brokers that thought they were making free money in November by borrowing in yen to invest in dollars (thus earning a "carry" or interest differential) have in the last two days learned that lesson the hard way. The rally in the yen versus the dollar yesterday and again this morning has wiped out all that "income". This is just like investors that sell volatility thinking it is "income". They will learn their lesson too.
- Gold chatta with Jim Sinclair.
- Last, but certainly not least, our All-Star Guitar Auction is starting to garner a bit more interest as bids edge over $50,000. For my part, I plan on spending Saturday afternoon with my Queen, a snazzy bottle of red wine, some fresh fromage and a rather wide smile. Ruby, I am sure, will be smiling alongside us.
- Good luck today and trade like a Minyan!
position in select pharma, metals
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