Couple of quick queries for tomorrow - Jason Roney - 2:15 PM
1) After two consecutive 10-day high closes for the SP500, and it's the day before December expiry, what has happened in the past? The close is down 3 of 4 instances.
2) It's the day before the December expiry and the SP500 posted a 30 day-high close the day before. What has happened in the past? The close is down 4 of 5 instances (with the worst loss just -.7%). Here are the years if curious: 2004, 2003, 1995, 1990, 1989.
Similar queries anchored to any triple which week yielded mixed results so I think there are too few results to draw any real conclusion, but thought of interest all the same.
This day in market history...
- Closing levels 10 years ago today:
- DJIA: 5182.15
- S&P 500: 616.92
- Naz: 1038.19
- Crude: 19.14
- Gold: 387.20
This day in Minyanville history...
- Prof. Goepfert said, Good Bye, New Highs.
In other news...
- In 1999, Charles Schultz announced he was retiring the "Peanuts" comic strip.
One mo' time... - Todd Harrison - 1:39 PM
Hoofy is giving the acne his very best college try as he attempts to spur the herd through S&P 1270. He knows that everyone and their cat is waiting for technical affirmation to validate their investment decisions. That's often dangerous--respect, mon frere, never defer--but with performance paychecks thisfar away, this level will likely dictate the collective reasoning.
Breadth is getting better (almost 2:1) and the cyclicals are trying to do their part (paced by Honeywell (HON)+6%). If the brokers can flip the upside switch, it'll likely be game on for the Matador Crowd. How do you play while protecting yourself? Simple, rolling stops--they work quite well in reactive tapes.
Other than that, we're taking deep breaths as we chew through the slew of "to do's" heading into year-end. In my infinite wisdom, I just noticed that our all-star guitar auction is slated to end December 17th at 5:00 EST. That would be Saturday, my friends, and gives me ample excuse to skip the holiday shopping session that my Queen had (previously) scheduled. Noice!
Now Scotto--I would quote you...but I can't pronounce half those words!
Technical Analysis 101 - Todd Harrison - 12:18 PM
In the interest of real-time fiscal literacy, keep an eye on Pfizer (PFE). The drug giant has started to fill the gap created by the October meltage. These vacuums typically "fill" which, in this case, would "work" to $24ish.
I own some Pfizer for reasons discussed on the 'Ville. And in the interest of full disclosure, I plan to sell a bit if and when this gap fills. Why? Discipline...and because the Queen needs a new pair of shoes.
position in pfe
Gunsmoke, baby... it's that easy - Kevin Depew - 11:34 AM
Note the NDX and RUT pacing the downside today. This is interesting action as the NDX has been the leading relative strength group since August 2 and recently added an X to the NDX/SPX relative strength chart on November 22. Since August 2 the NDX is up 4.8% compared to 1.9% for the SPX and 1.3% for the Dow.
One day does not a trend make, but the NDX is currently on a double bottom sell signal and will likely reverse down with today's action setting up a potential retest of important support at 1675.
Speaking of tests, do not think for a moment that I have not noticed Toddo's weak left-hand jabs at my wardrobe the past two days. Thus far, in the spirit of the season, I have chosen to ignore these tests and travel the higher road. But easy there Festus, don't make me go Marshall Matt Dillon on you.
Stiff Upper Lip? - MV Respect - 9:12 AM
"The Fed's decision and language has the S&P and NDX a hair's breadth from their peak, but in many ways it was recent laggards that provided the kick to Tuesday's move. Pfizer was one of the most prominent names on our positive volatility alert list yesterday as the stock surged after setting a new low on Monday.
We believe pharma is a contrary play for 2006 that shows some bullish developments supporting that atypical call out of our department. Even as PFE was hitting new lows on Monday, the % of issues within the group was contracting suggesting that fewer names were driving the index lower.
A look at net volume alerts confirms the picture as the recent flows have stabilized suggesting that much of the supply within the group has been sufficiently exhausted with the news over the last year. It will admittedly be a slow turn in our opinion, but as the Rydex sector data shows, the group remains under-loved by investors."
Lehman's aptly named technician Jeff DeGraaf
position in pfe
MV Respect - 8:49 AM
The market reacted positively to yesterday's FOMC announcement, but the SPX remains in a short-term consolidation phase. A weekly TD Sequential™ "sell" signal confirms long-term overbought readings.
In the consumer staples sector, our indicators support positive follow-through for PG. We would watch support and resistance closely as headline risk is eliminated for tobacco stocks (MO, RAI and UST). ACV, HNZ, and MKC are poised for an oversold bounce.
REITs have a deteriorating relative strength posture that may worsen as the 10-year Treasury yield rises. Hotel stocks (HOT, MAR, HLT) have lost relative strength over the course of the year, and CCL looks overextended. Housing stocks such as ASD, MAS and MTH look vulnerable after the recent bounce.
Katie Townshend, Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners
Say what? - Kevin Depew - 8:38 AM
A look at commentary, opinion and analysis from around the world:
China scholar Willy Lam worries in the Wall Street Journal about China's spiraling unrest. "Hu-Wen leadership has gone beyond turning a blind eye to local grievances and is now willing to actively connive in their suppression."
According to the New York Times editorial team, New Orleans is turning into a hidden disaster, with no effective leadership in the rebuilding process, and the cost of properly rebuilding the levees causing some in Congress to balk.
Ok, while that was what I call a "bad news" story, not all the news from the hurricane-ravaged Gulf is "bad." Here is a heart-warming piece (also from the New York Times) about people helping people battle the odds, literally.
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