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Random Thoughts


S&P 1270 is still the most important level in the year-end universe!


  • The calm before the upside storm? Our All-Star Guitar is sitting pretty with a $40,600 bid. I get the feeling that the winner is gonna realize a rather nice return on this puppy!

  • When it rains, there's Rainwater.

  • I spoke to the Margarita Mama this morning and she asked me to "thank all those nice Minyan people" for their white light and warm wishes. Consider it done, dear.

  • "The Fed's decision and language has the S&P and NDX a hair's breadth from their peak, but in many ways it was recent laggards that provided the kick to Tuesday's move. Pfizer was one of the most prominent names on our positive volatility alert list yesterday as the stock surged after setting a new low on Monday. We believe pharma is a contrary play for 2006 that shows some bullish developments supporting that atypical call out of our department. Even as PFE was hitting new lows on Monday, the % of issues within the group was contracting suggesting that fewer names were driving the index lower. A look at net volume alerts confirms the picture as the recent flows have stabilized suggesting that much of the supply within the group has been sufficiently exhausted with the news over the last year. It will admittedly be a slow turn in our opinion, but as the Rydex sector data shows, the group remains under-loved by investors." Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Along those lines, and in the interest of real-time fiscal literacy, keep an eye on Pfizer (PFE). The drug giant has started to fill the gap created by the October meltage. These vacuums typically "fill" which, in this case, would "work" to $24ish. I own some Pfizer for reasons discussed on the 'Ville. And in the interest of full disclosure, I plan to sell a bit if and when this gap fills. Why? Discipline...and because the Queen needs a new pair of shoes.

  • I always chuckle when I see a guy wearing ear muffs but secretly covet the warm ear thing.

  • It's starting to get bewy quiet out there and I'm already saying farewell to several friends taking extended year-end leaves. Vacations are massively important---in a "working to live" sense and in terms of giving our brain a rest. I'm gonna practice what I preach the last week of the year, as will many others in the 'Ville, and spend some vibe time with my Queen. I will humbly ask for a bit of patience that week--and I give you my solemn word that we'll make it up when the new MV digs arrive in early January!

  • There's something fishy in the Yen today (3% move). Succo often talks about the "rotating global volatility" and I concur. It's "unnatural" for equities to be the quietest class in town.

  • S's over N's as the homies and energy tug-o-war the chips and nets. The wildcard in the equation will likely be the financials, which are having a tetherball match of their own. The money centers are hangin' tough while the big cap brokers are lumberjack heavy.

  • Hey Mo, give me fifteen minutes in a room alone with you. All I need is a pair of pliers, a ball peen hammer, four sharp tacks and a can of whoop ass.

  • This would never happen in the 'Ville.

  • Raaaaid!

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "I wanted to pass on to you this piece that appeared 10 days ago in the UK Guardian paper. One of the most moving things i have ever read. A 13 year old boy killed by a rare and aggressive cancer. As you yourself often and quite rightly point out for those more fortunate there is more to life than the flashing screens and P&L figures if we only took time to take a step back. You have always been a champion of very worthwhile human charitable causes. With best wishes for the holiday season ahead and for 2006. Yours sincerely, London Minyan Stephen"

  • It's mouse fart quiet out there as we sit atop the Hump. The equity ticks should flicker quicker as we edge towards triple witching and Friday's rebalancing. Away from the pulled teeth, the smelting continues as gold edges towards her destiny ($500/oz) (the retest of the previous breakout). Remember, the sharpest corrections tend to occur in bull markets and while I respect the potential that this is something "meatier," I'm approaching it as a hiccup in a much larger, secular trend.

  • Fare ye well.

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position in pfe, metal equities
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