Tuesday's With Elmer
By Todd Harrison Dec 14, 2004 9:16 am
Be the ball!
- How is something "definitively unchanged?"
- Hoofy walked into the 'Ville yesterday feeling frisky after the sideways slither of recent weeks allowed him to rest. That dynamic remains in play, particularly since the specter of a "long squeeze" may further facilitate performance anxiety. The risk to that potential reward is the lopsided nature of the tape and the widespread acceptance of a year-end ramp.
- Keep an eye on the all-important piggies as they 1) test the recent downtrend from November 2) will reflect any rate concerns into and out of the FOMC announcement and 3) need to make a new '04 high to avoid a negative divergence.
- Perhaps "slither" isn't the word I'm looking for?
- Most don't make the distinction between a strong economy and a mechanism supported by debt and liquidity. That is, until it's not supported anymore.
- Why do I keep thinking of Navin R. Johnson and the Opti-grab?
- At the risk of the big mush (not my intent), I must tip my hat and hand to the Iron Horse. I've read Brian for years (dating back to our old stomping grounds) and his steady assimilation of the financial landscape has been brilliant. This current wave of buybacks and increased M&A activity isn't a shocker to anyone who has witnessed his wise words.
- Keep the change!
- Isn't there an amendment or two that protects the freedom of speech? Or were art galleries specifically targeted by the Patriot Act?
- We posed a question on the Buzz yesterday from a Minyan asking if his home value increased if it rose in dollars but was worth less gold. The "default" response from most folks is that the greenback is the accepted basis of comparison and the true measure of wealth. That is true--but the years ahead will offer a sharp lesson in the benefits of alternative currencies.
- Justin Lahart penned a fantastic "Ahead of the Tape" column in this morning's WSJ regarding the Fedjenda.
- There is heavy open interest in the S&P in the 1200 and 1215 line as the four witches eye Friday.
- At present, an overvalued market with moderately favorable market action is what we have, and we remain constructively positioned, if skeptical about further progress." --John P. Hussman of the Hussman Funds.
- As it stands, Neal Greenberg is still slated to join Scott Reamer, John Succo, Greg Collins, Jeff Macke, Rich Gula, Snoop Tone, Phil Erlanger, Michael Santoli, Greg Weldon, Bernie Schaeffer, Fokker and a few close friends at the December 22 Minyanville holiday dinner. Proceeds, as you're well aware, will benefit The Ruby Peck Foundation for Childrens Education. And it should be noted that what happens at Festivus....
- As more deals get announced, expect stocks to react to "rumortrage" stories as they flitter around the Street.
- "Although debt is much on her mind, she and her friends, like many in their generation, maintain an ambivalent attitude toward it. 'A lot of times we talk about it, but then we say, 'Where are we going to dinner tonight?'"
- General Electric (GE:NYSE) hosts its annual analyst meeting today. And Jeff didn't even call me!
- "There are as many nights as days, and the one is just as long as the other in the year's course. Even a happy life cannot be without a measure of darkness, and the word happy would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness." -- Carl Jung
- Nobody--and I mean nobody--expects Elmer to rock the boat. And he probably won't. But on the off chance that he does, make certain that you have a game plan mapped out. Fed days are a tale of two sessions and it'll get mighty thin at 2:15. Please put limits on your orders and definition on your risk.
- Good luck today.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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