Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Creep Higher
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Yes Sensei - Ryan Kreuger - 2:36 PM
Bennett once again provided Minyans an excellent and much needed dose of global perspective the other day with this local chart of the Sensex. From my perch, his longer range noodles to chew on are a terrific off-speed pitch, much needed in every trader's repertoire that are too often fastball (short-term) only.
I was seeing other warning signals flashing on some emerging markets ourselves that have gone far too long without a problem, my instincts and experience tell me, and I tried to share some of it here in "En Peligro," at the end of last week. As I wrote was likely, my firm sold a large portion of one of our longest longs, Infosys (INFY).
As Bennett and I also mentioned separately, Japan was peaking our interest on the other end of the risk spectrum. And as I had hoped for, we did initiate a position in Nomura Holdings (NMR).
And speaking of different markets, and Japan - for the first time in 16 years Japan saw its top 3 real estate markets rise in value in the recent 12 month year-over-year comparison.
Hit 'em where they ain't Minyans.
Is it too early for a Kirin?
Position in INFY, NMR
"Is that a ten-gallon hat, or are you just enjoying the show?" Lili Von Shtupp - Todd Harrison - 1:31 PM
- Sorry for the laggage, Minyans, as we were doing a 'view and holding some court.
- I return to my turret to find the drillers at an important level. We've been eyeing the reverse dandruff in the OSX for some time and they're pixels through where they failed (twice) this summer.
- Speaking of eyeballs, We noted the pinkish hue in the semicaps out of this morning's gate and sure 'nuff, they're off between two and three percent each. Why do I bring this up? Stocks that open flat (to down) in an up opening are typically tellin' ya something.
- I have amusing anecdotes about Eli Manning and Allan Houston from last night but I can't share the fare without Slaino calling me a...um, yeah. Suffice to say that a little "positive reinforement' was very well received (and entirely unexpected) by the Jint QB.
- Breadth is even, Steven, and we're seeing more motion (homies, drillers, semis, metals) than movement (overall tape). With expiration a scant two sessions away, there's a noticable tug to today's war. Don't press or stress, Minyans, just see and be. The profits will show themselves if you honor thy process.
More High/Low and Get Shorty? - Kevin Depew - 12:33 PM
Adam Warner was just asking me some additional questions about the NYSE High-Low Index. It can remain above 70% for a long, long time.
For example, in 1995-96 it remained above 70% for nearly eight months with 13 separate reversals above that level. In 2003 it remained above the 70% level for nine months with three reversals above that level.
In contrast, the High-Low Index does not remain below 30% for very long at all. Reversals up from this low level included March 2000 (which helped avoid the tech wreck via simple rotation into NYSE-based stocks), Oct. 2001, Aug. 2002, March 2003 and July 2006, which I unfortunately chose to largely ignore by letting my "thinking" get in the way of what a trader should be "doing."
Reversals up from below 30% are far better as predictors of positive market action than reversals down from above 70% are as predictors of negative market action. This is largely due to the overall positive upward drift of the market.
It is extraordinarily difficult for a directional trader to make money over time shorting stocks. In fact, saying that it is "extraordinarily difficult" may be something of an understatement. The positive upward drift of stocks and the many opportunity costs involved in shorting them, the give-up of dividends, the cost of money and margin, the cap on potential gains of 100% (assuming the stock goes to zero without using leverage) all conspire to make the short side self-defeating in the vast majority of situations for the vast, vast majority of individual investors and traders.
Flip the script and consider how hard it is to own a stock and make money on the long side, even WITH the long-term upward drift in your favor.
What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:20 AM
Something In the Air? United is reported to have been in talks with Continental and AirTran is pursuing Midwest Air. If you've got $5 billion in direct cash handouts and $10 billion more in government- backed loan guarantees I'm thinking you and I could run an airline as well!
Want a TMX Elmo? Wal-Mart (WMT) to the rescue! The world's largest retailer says it will sell 4,000 dolls every day this week on its Web site. In case you need the address it's: www.walmart.com and the release says they will make the toys available "around noon E.T. on a first come, first serve basis" for $39.97 apiece.
Skype To Offer $29.95 Annual Plan - The Internet communications carrier that was purchased by eBay (EBAY) announced a subscription service that allows registered users to make 12 months of unlimited SkypeOut calls to landline and mobile phones within the U.S. and Canada and if you sign up for the new plan before Jan. 31 will qualify for discounted introductory rate of $14.95 a year, 50% off the regular flat-rate price of $29.95.
Pru Cuts Circuit City (CC) & Best Buy (BBY) - The broker was concerned that CC's cost structure is higher than at rival Best Buy and has taken the electronics retailer to underweight from neutral weight. They also lowered their rating on Best Buy, cutting it to neutral weight from overweight after the company reported 3Q profit margins well below expectations.
Position in UAUA
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