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Random Thoughts


Just another graze across the tape...

  • Professor Sedacca and I have been spending alotta time online--and offline--talking about how pharma might be the suprise sector of 2006. We've been early--shocker for me, eh?--but I'm starting to get the "Philip Morris in the 30's" feeling on some of these names.

  • Acrimony manifest?

  • It'll be a tale of two tapes today as the flickering ticks will sit on either side of the FOMC. Please remember to put limits on your orders as the pivot point arrives.

  • Have you ordered your Minyanville holiday gifts yet?

  • The metals are crimson n' dover. I "see" the price action, as well as the mounting evidence of a likely pullback, but I plan to patiently buy on dips (when the time is right) and add to my long-term holdings. I think this sector is a multi-year play.

  • Yawns R' Us? The financials are flattish despite the fright from the Brothers Lehman (LEH).

  • Mr. Hoffa, I presume?

  • Coldman? No, Gold, man!

  • Front-month Altria (MO) vols are flying through the roof ahead of Thursday's decision. Buzz on the Street is that there's about a 75% shot that Altria wins and it'll be good for five to ten handles. If they lose, these same folks speculate, the stock could get smoked for 15-20 points.

  • Friends of Jack Skiba unite!

  • Not so fast! Elmer will actually pull the vaunted double encore presentation of his FOMC run when he takes the mike on January 31st. It was originally scheduled as a two day gig but they shifted it for maximum splashage.

  • "In the very near-term, the equity market and its sectors are in "no man's land." Typically, we try to identify the "pain trade" extremes (the trade that hurts the most people, which is what the equity market tends to do) and make some kind of comment. Right now we can't, as most sectors and stocks are marking time. We continue to remain very bullish as long as the S&P 500 operating EPS direction, 3-month to 10-year yield curve, and High Yield Corporate spreads to 10-year US Treasuries remain favorable." -- Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

  • Did you see the critters in BusinessWeek?

  • The Fearless Fed? We're 68 ticks away from single digit vols (as measured by the VXO). That's not an ursine causation but it certainly ain't bullish.

  • How does he know where we're going?

  • Heckuva feel, Mr. JeffMacke.

  • Best guess on the FOMC? Status quo--25 bips and verbatim text--and a test of S&P 1245 support.

  • "Gold's Daily Sentiment Index was 96% bulls on Friday. So just 4% of traders were not bullish on Gold. Why is this important? Because the reversal from yesterday's limit up day is impulsive (along with silver's decline). An impulsive decline with a 96% all-time record bullishness speaks to the degree of expected decline here (we will hear of many "entry points" along the way I suspect). Financial speculation - not inflation - is the source of the price action in gold. A popping credit bubble is bad for the price of gold, quite the opposite of what folks expect." -- Scott Reamer on today's Buzz

  • That's what I call good legal support!

  • Four days and four hours left in the all-star guitar auction and indxarb is top bid at $37,800. Nice...

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