The Furry Mush
You thought you were the cool fool
Never could do no wrong
Had everything sewed up tight
How come you lay awake all night long?
A longtime friend just called and blasted Boo for laughing in the last post. He argued that celebrating before a trade is taken is the biggest mush in the market and, you know what? He's right. Traders are a superstitious bunch and celebrating while you've still got chips on the table is asking for trouble. Remember--it's a marathon and not a sprint and consistency is the key to trading. Don't beat yourself up when losing and don't get too high when winning. That goes double for you, Boo.
I wanted to quickly touch on the technical landscape as we dangle and dabble on support of sorts. I can't stop looking at the two-headed monster on the S&P (one month chart) and a similar looking beast in the SOX. Hoofy doesn't frighten easily but those patterns scare the sprinkles out of him. That, taken in conjunction with the Razor Burn thesis, bode poorly for our resident bovine. With that said, my trusty stochastics that have served me in such good stead are starting to approach levels that imply turning my Raider hat around and playing for a bounce. They're a ways away, mind you, and I think we've got some time...but I wanted to point them out such that it's not a shocker if I begin to reference them in the future.
I continue to monitor the dollar (crunch), crude (rally) and my belly (grow) as we wade through the afternoon and I've been keeping an eye out for our resistant Turtle. Naturally, the longer we sit here, the lower the probability of an afternoon Snapper. He's still got time but I would think the internals would have to uptick or the banks would have to lead us higher (they're trying). As far as levels to watch, a rally through SOX 330 would likely negate the dandruff alert for that complex while a burst through 910 would do the same for the S&P.
More importantly, the debate is raging in my office on the merits of basketball phenom LeBron James. Junior is telling me that he could "school" the kid, Bucky (between bites) is calculating the probability of the Knick's getting him and, from what I can tell, I think JJ is talking about a Spanish Miner. What, you ask, is JJ talking about? I've worked with the guy for a while now and I've yet to hear a coherent sentence come out of his mouth. I'm not taking a shot at him-he really mumbles! Hey Casey, set up the critters with a little audio so the readers can catch a giggle!
Hope you're coining some shekels...I'll be back.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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