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Make it Count


BOO! Stop tormenting my bullfriend!


And I could have done so many things, baby
If I could only stop my mind
From wondering what I left behind
And from worrying bout this wasted time

(The Eagles)

The trading day is frittering along and the tape has settled into a state of flux. It's sessions like these that I'm tempted to write that it's slow and lethargic, but I've been doing this long enough to know that if you offer the Minx a hint of disinterest, she'll make you look silly. For my part, I've been passing my time walking through my metrics and trying to make sure-with absolute certainty-that I've removed emotion from my process. Trust me when I tell you that when you offer your view for the world to see, you have to be extra careful that it doesn't affect your trading mindset.

Instincts are important and they're a vital part of trading-when they work! When they don't, it's very easy to beat yourself up and focus on the fact that intuitions aren't an official metric. To be sure, an aspect of my current (bear) posture is a function of my belief that the long side is crowded and waiting for a year-end rally to sell. Is that a good enough reason (for my desire) to be short? In and of itself, not really-but when I mix it into my brew of inputs, it makes sense in my mind's eye.

I can't stop looking at the 30 day chart of the SOX and marveling at the symmetry of the head and shoulders. For those of you who aren't "technically inclined," this is a potential flag. I know, I know-this bear has cried "no more tears" before, but consistency in a trading methodology (while remaining adaptive) is a good thing. Further, I will draw your attention to the spike in gold, the rally in crude and the dollar meltage as other caveats in the market place. Does this mean Boo is gonna be right on the Razor Burn? It stacks the deck in his favor but there are no guarantees in this world-and certainly not in this market.

Watch the S&P 900 level (again) as it's being tested and don't be stubborn (yes, I'm talking to myself too). We've been talking a lot on year end but life will continue in January and we'll begin our journey anew. This has been a difficult year in many ways but if you focus on the wouldas, shouldas and couldas, you're gonna miss the here and now and the what will be. Those that don't learn from the past are destined to repeat it and, from my vantage point, it's time to move on. Think positive and keep your head up-the best is yet to come.

Good luck, my friends.


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