Wait a Minute!
The more bears the better as far as I'm concerned!
So if you wake up with the sunrise
And all your dreams are still as new
And happiness is what you need so bad
Girl, the answer lies with you
Another minxy session is underway and the she's all over the place! Indeed, the opening sprouts were mowed over by anxious bears before the bulls defended S&P 900 (again)--and if you blinked, you likely missed the whole shebang. A few themes jumped off my screen and bit me, Blinky, and I wanted to be sure to share them. First and foremost, PG is down after boosting their forecast last night and I find that interesting. Also, the banks are once again underperforming and that's leading to a relatively pronounced N's over S's (NDX outperformance of S&P). Finally, if the retailers can't rally on this morning's upbeat sales numbers, what does that tell you?
All that said, I'm quite conscious that the above mentioned data points are three for three on the negative side of the ledger and, heck, I didn't even mention how lethargic Europe is! I've read a handful of reports this morning "calling" for a year-end melt up and trust me when I tell you I'm conscious of the prospect. My message to you, and I've tried to be crystal clear on this, is that each Minyan this must make their own choices and those decisions must be consistent with your individual horizon and risk profile. I can have an opinion and I'll trade based on that-but I'll be the one that benefits if I'm right or take my medicine if I'm wrong.
In the time I've been writing this post, I've watched the averages act great, act horrible and act well again. If you're reactive and chasing the tape, you're likely whipping yourself into frenzy and should sloooow down. It's not about catching every move...it's about finding an advantageous risk/reward. If I'm boring you with redundancy, please accept my sincere apologies-but if repeating the need for discipline helps one reader make more intelligent decisions, it's time well spent on my part.
A check of the morning breadth finds moderately positive internals with a relatively better tone in tech. The flow I've seen borders on humorous: macro buyers into the lift, macro sellers into the dip, and one contact tells me he's seeing decent mutual fund buying (for the first time in a while) while another says he's got real merchandise for sale. Man, if only this was coming out of one source, they could start a metaphorical website based on schizophrenia! Wasabi!
The pace has slowed somewhat but we know better than to take our eye off the ball. Every tick (of the clock and the stock) gains added importance as we approach baby new year and the funny feeling the tape isn't going to slither sideways without some drama (sorry Sammy!). Heads up on the Elmer front as the FOMC minutes (from the Nov. 6 meeting) will be released at 2pm and curious traders will climb inside the Fed's head on the last 50 bip snip.
I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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