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Random Thoughts


Come on down to the Red Lion tonight!

  • T-Minus six days till we start helping alotta kids!

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag (to Succo): "John, That was a very good and easy to understand article on currencies. I've been trying to explain that to my wife for years without much success. But after reading your post, she's got it! No wonder we call you a professor. Minyan Cowboy

  • Keep an eye on Aunt Fannie (FNM). She woke up on the wrong side of bed this morning and has been frumpy ever since.

  • Buzz Bit (10:15 AM)

    Rook jumps Queen, King jumps Queen. Everyone jumps the Queen!!!

    It's a gang tackle out there as the Matador Crowd piles on. The semis (+2.5%) broke out and haven't looked back, NYSE breadth is 4:1 positive, the all-important financials are doing their part (BKX and XBD +1%), the small caps aren't as small (+1%), the metals are on a horse (XAU +3%) and, well, it's downright giddy everywhere you look.

    There are two schools of thought here. The first is that, for those looking to bang with Boo, this lift takes us closer to the defined upside risk (S&P 1270ish) that we spoke about earlier in the week. It's a tough fade, given the sparklin' green tea leaves, but the best fades typically are. The other vibe is the "go along, get along" trade and, with the beta pacing the race, performance anxiety growing and strong internals throughout, riding the tide--and rolling up stops--makes sense for those bullish into year-end.

    My gut? Thick, and marginally hanging over the top of my jeans (thanks Macke). If I had a water pistol to my keppe, I would say "make sales into S&P 1270--particularly with the retailers reversing lower and dancing in Red Dye."

  • And just like that, gold trades at $500, silver tickles multi-year highs and XAU 120 is the next milestone for the metal equities.

  • Why do they sterilize the needle for lethal injections?

  • "The Conference Board just released their monthly Interest Rate Expectations Survey. And can you believe it? People are the most bearish (expect rates to rise and prices to fall) since the results began being released in 1987. Each time that people have been this negative, a rally in long-term government bonds has ensued, sometimes a very large rally. When you get this many people leaning one way, it usually represents an important inflection point, whether in stocks or bonds. Why rates would fall is for the economists to decide. Perhaps a slowdown in housing? A pickup in savings and corresponding slowdown in retail sales? You never really know and it is dangerous to make such predictions, but it is my experience that when the crowd leans this heavily in one direction, it usually pays to lean against them." -- Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz

  • I walked up to Luscious this morning and gave her six carrots (the vegetable kind). She didn't think it was very funny...

  • "The S&P had its first day of distribution since this rally began in mid-October, while the NASDAQ churned. Curiously, the breadth figures were flat, with a slight (100 issue) bias downward. Financials were the weakest component Wednesday which belies the power of the group. One of the likely reasons for the S&P being at a new high has been the performance of this group. The percentage of issues above their 200-day moving average is sending a message consistent with breadth and new high indications: failing to confirm the most recent high in the index. One important level for us to differentiate bull from bear market will be the ability of breadth to maintain its October low. Should the breadth-line fall under that level, it will set a bear tone for the market regardless of the SPX price level." -- Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers

  • How the heck am I supposed to manage Phoebe's year-end expectations with these sorta stories floating around?

  • Fed Fund Futes are pricing in a 30% chance of easing by the end of '06.

  • A rolling stone may gather no moss but the Rolling Bones are coming to town! Minyan Charlie Mangano will perform at the Red Lion tonight and MVHQ will be there in force. NYC night owls are welcome to swing by for a schnitzel!

  • Mr. Ed needs to check his head!

  • If you haven't vibed on Macke's Retail Round-up, you're missing some fantastic content.

  • Yes officer, Billy was here all day yesterday.

  • Be mindful!

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