By Todd Harrison Dec 01, 2004 3:32 pm
Enjoy the Hump!
We can dance if we want to
We can leave your friends behind
'Cause your friends don't dance and if they don't dance
Then they're no friends of mine
(Men Without Hats)
The bovine advance is an upside romance as the now hairless bears stand back in a trance. Their eyes are a bit bloodshot after watching the combination of crude spillage (-7%), minty breadth (2:1 positive) and strong stewardship (semis/financials) lead the speed. Now, with the S&P ticking to new '04 highs (and the techs already there), the ursine are both shaken and stirred.
There's no denying that today's session is a feather in Hoofy's cap. After a month long sideways slither, they embraced the notion that seasonal inflows and Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) distributions would bode well for their fellow bulls. When you juxtapose an accepted rational with permeating performance anxiety, you get screens as green as what we've seen. The question now becomes one of sustainability and identifying the roadmap into year-end.
A huge double catalyst is looming (Intel (INTC:NASD) and Beeks) and I have little doubt that a gap will usher in Freaky Friday. The path of least resistance is a polar express but there will surely be a point where traders wonder "what if?" With vols dripping (VXN -5%) and traders as 'certain' as they've been in a while, the fabled "pop and drop" is a viable probability. There aren't many supportive elements to that scenario (outside the obvious macro concerns and lopsided landscape) but that, in and of itself, is cause for pause. I'm not suggesting you draw lines in the sand, mind you, I'm simply asking you to appreciate the beach.
I mentioned yesterday that I didn't have a strong feel and have traded sparingly today. I've still got some situational longs and underneath puts but it's not a bet in the traditional sense. There was a time in my career when I would have Collins put corks on my forks but I'm not stressing about opportunity costs. I've learned that if I take care of the minutes, the hours will take care of themselves. Over the course of time, that step-function mentality will serve me in good stead and keep the hairs on my head!
Fare ye well into the bell and have a peaceful night.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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