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Jet Lagging Randoms


C'mon David, suck it up!

Lots of my bi-coastal friends complain about the jet lag, but since I've been on a permanent diet of dual time zones for the last eight years flying cross-country doesn't much bother me. This trek to Paris, however, ugh. To match the sound-bite sized thoughts I'm able to keep in my head, I thought I'd share some random thoughts until I'm able to form something longer and more coherent...

• The detonation of Nabi Biopharma (NABI) caught some very smart people leaning the wrong way. We went back and forth in the pages of our research about getting very long in front of the data, but finally decided to keep it at the lowest of our three Model Portfolio levels believing the owners of the dumb convertible Nabi would stand in front of the steamroller long enough to give us a reasonable entry point. Whew!

• Speaking of convertible debt... If a company just sells stock to raise money, the short selling ahead of the deal comes and disappears (provided you can avoid warrant coverage). Convertible debt offerings mean the short selling keeps on giving. Want to find yourself an unsophisticated dev-stage biotech CFO? Find one who does a convertible debt offering. They are all toxic these days.

• The fine art of equivocation when six of your starting players are accused of being on steroids... (thanks to JW for the link)

• Still one of my favorite quotes: "GAAP is a random walk through irrelevancy right now." - Sun Micro (SUNW) CEO Scott McNealy

• I find it interesting, all the articles lately about naked short selling as well as market manipulation. In my experience, reporters' eyes gloss over when you even try to explain basic short selling to them. I think we're in the pre-game warm-ups where this topic is concerned. Once reporters start figuring this out to the point where they actually understand matters, watch out.

• Speaking of short sellers, try this exercise: When you see market civilians over the Thanksgiving weekend, describe the concept of short selling to them (borrowing shares out of their account with the intended effect of having the share price go down) as a "for instance" and then ask them whether they think the SEC would (or should) allow such a thing. You'll immediately get an idea of how large the disconnect is between civilians and pros in the market.

• When Bill Gates said Microsoft (MSFT) would go the software-as-a-service direction, the ex-software company CEO in me had to giggle. InfoWorld's Ephraim Schwartz put it more succinctly.

• Speaking of Microsoft... If Vista doesn't boost tech spending, stick a fork in all the marginal players in the desktop side.

• Speaking of desktops, if you believe 64-bit desktops are the future your obvious pairs trade is short Intel (INTC) and long Advanced Micro (AMD). Talking to my buddies at Microsoft, they are very impressed at the AMD hardware and more than a little tired of dealing with Intel. Human nature, dear Intel, is conditioned to take the path of least resistance. Don't be surprised if WinTel becomes WinAMD going forward.

• I got called politically correct yesterday. I told my friend that on the phone and I think I heard him laugh up a lung. Even the cats smiled.

• If you have an interest in prostate cancer as an investor, patient, or family member shell out a few sheckles for the current edition of the Journal of Clinical Oncology.

• I'm back to June of this year and still have 800 e-mails in my Inbox. Ugh...

• Toddo, I think you ought to have Hoofy and Boo costumes that Interns have to put on. Take pictures and put them on the web site.
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