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Random Thoughts


Be on the ball, Minyans!

  • Critters and Wagons.

  • The other side of the "crude doesn't matter" trade.

  • Uncle Hana?

  • Actual conversations heard in the 'Ville this morning:

    • 10:44

      Investor: "Hey Toddo, whatchu think."
      Toddo: "I, uh, I think tech breaks out."
      Investor: Thanks (and hangs up)
      Toddo: Keep an eye on the breadth, it's nasty. But if the tape can shrug off the homies and Freddie, psychology will embrace the markets moxie in absorbing bad news.

    • 11:02

      Toddo: Hey Macke, whataya think of me and my honey coming to Napa for Thanksgiving? She's never experienced a traditional feast.
      Macke: Is that a Jewish thing?
      Toddo: No dude, it's a Canadian thing.

  • There's gold in dem dar hills!

  • As discussed on the back of Microsoft (MSFT) and on the heels of Dell (DELL), the ability to absorb bad news is traditionally characteristic of a strong tape. The only problem with using that as a catalyst? We won't know the level of absorption until after the ultimate arbiter (price) weighs in.

  • Kinda like a big dog siren?

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "Toddo, I've been biting my tongue while listening to all the gold commentary on MV and elsewhere during this recent sell off. In my way of thinking, the market is merely undergoing some profit taking after reaching a yearly objective of 483. It hasn't broken down at all. To date, it has merely come back to test the monthly breakout level at 455-456. The first test was obviously successful. As long as this level holds, December should be another strong month. Meanwhile, silver acts incredibly well. All, of course, in IMHO. :-) Minyan Brian"


    First things first, stop biting your tongue--it makes eating and speaking extremely difficult. Second, while I won't argue against the consolidation thesis (I'm not selling, I'm simply keeping powder dry to buy lower), the fact is that gold did, in fact, "break down" on a technical basis.

    I view technical analysis as one of four primary metrics (fundies, structural, psychology) and, as such, will never defer to the charts. I simply view this metric as a framework with which to trade and, at times, to quantify risk (stop levels).

    The dollar breakout is a headwind. The gold chart is a headwind. But there are alotta structural, psychological and fundamental reasons to keep some metal exposure. And so I am.

  • The poster child for staying single.

  • While you were sleeping, Citigroup (C) has edged above its 200-day moving average. This puppy has been a dog--relative to its brethren--but the current chart looks conspicuously like some reverse dandruff.

  • "Bill certainly has a great deal of self-confidence, but he's got the humility to know that he can always learn from somebody that's successful. To me, the smarter you are, the more you want to learn." -- Giant's GM Ernie Acorsi on Bill Belichick when he hired him as the Browns' head coach in '91.

  • France is France but it could never happen here. Or could it? As our two-class society proliferates and the psychology bubble permeates, civil unrest is, in fact, within our probability spectrum.

  • Do yield curve inversions matter? We should find out pretty soon. Or, as Larry David would say, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty soon.

  • Why, if I was vibin' a breakout in tech, did I not toss the bull costume back on? A few reasons, including the lofty stochastics which appear ready to trigger a sell signal. That doesn't mean that Hoofy can't run, it simply means that he won't have as many ducks behind him if he does.

  • They shoulda stuck to horseshoes...

  • Meehan strikes again!

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