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Random Thoughts

By

Hey Scotto!

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  • Misses with kisses.

  • With a name like Gore, I assume he's bullish?

  • Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder walks through the previous range breakouts in gold in his morning missive and has arrived at a $500 price target for the precious metal. "We think we understand that the implication of a $500 gold price means that the $ will continue to weaken vs. the Euro, Yen and most other currencies. We think we understand the broader implications of a continued weak $. We just aren't comfortable with the timing."


  • Dr. Minyan Marc Faber

  • The high beta jig (nets, Taser (TASR:NASD), TravelZoo (TZOO:NASD) coupled with the lethargy in the brokers (SEC sniffage) has led to a pronounced "N's over S's" tape.

  • Mushrooms beware!

  • Chinese food for thought

  • A hearty Minyanville congratulations to Professor Jason Goepfert for receiving the prestigious 2004 Charles Dow Award from the Market Technicians Association (MTA). "Mutual Fund Cash Reserves, the Risk-Free Rate and Stock Market Performance" will be featured in the MTA's Journal of Technical Analysis issue No. 62 within the next few weeks.

  • Are you really that surprised?

  • Talking bubbles on Bloomberg.

  • Talking bubbles with Yahoo!

  • "With the uncertainty surrounding the election's outcome only a memory, the SPX stands at its highest level since March '02. The strength last week moved the needle on our trend following indicator as our breakout and crossover systems turned positive. Back in August we discussed the crossover system, for at that time a dark cross had developed on the SPX. The recent strength in the index has been powerful enough to reverse that call, as a "golden cross" has now developed. Remember, the power of this system is in its expectancy, not its hit ratio." --Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman.

  • Oops...

  • Four martinis?!?

  • I'll be spending more time at the library.

  • "Our proprietary indicators are now WAY overbought. As well, the Lowry's short-term trading index is currently at 82 and the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average is at 91%. Both of these indicators are at levels that historically have represented at least a short-term trading top.: --Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James.

  • The critters welcome Scott Reamer to the big city! This week's Succofest just got a whole lot snazzier!

  • "The stage is set: the debt bubble is here. The pin prick will come when U.S. rates spike as foreign buying, especially by the Japanese, of U.S. Treasury bonds on the margin declines. The signal will be the dollar breaking down against the yen: at 103-105 Japan starts losing capital. The "play" won't begin until intervention cannot hold the yen above 100. AT 105 yen, we are simply watching carefully." -John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • One of the great minxy ironies is that there are a TON of reasons to be bearish and the bottom and lots of reasons to be bullish at the top. While a rampy run to the final '04 gun "could" happen, I believe that we'll either A) pause first and shake out the bandwagons or B) trap lotsa folks in a mirror image of March 2003.

  • Canada, eh?

  • The Raiders quest for .500 lives!

  • S&P 1165 and NDX 1525 remain the inflection points du jour.

  • Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) goes ex-the $3 special dividend November 15. Morgan Stanley estimates that index funds own 1.16 billion shares and will receive $3.5B in dividends. S&P will adjust for the corporate action at the close on Friday so index funds that want to stay current with the index will likely buy the index on November 12th.

    R.P.
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