He doesn't care?
It's all right if you love me
It's all right if you don't
I'm not afraid of you running away
Honey I get the feeling you won't
The early morning tug-o-war is in full swing as the first rally gave way to some downside testage. I peered over my eight screens at Fokker and asked him if it was too early for the fade to begin (don't worry--it was rhetorical). It kinda felt like that anyway and, if form holds, the second rally attempt should offer Boo a better entry point. Have we seen it yet? Probably not...but I don't have a high degree of confidence on that.
Looking at our sector tells, the piggies, internets (ex-EBAY (EBAY:NASD)) and semicaps are (thus far)lethargic. Still, the tone is decent, breadth is minty and I'm seeing a strong mix of real (mutual fund) buyers and panicky call chasers. The common theme? Everyone seems to be gripping the handlebars extra tight and staring at the ticks as if THAT is the one. Chill, Minyans, and devise a game plan that allows the Minx to work for you.
Maybe I'm eating a silly sandwich but I gotta think the banks (and rate sensitive names in general) are approaching a fork in the road. I understand about loan growth and the perception of (cough) credit quality but, as a forward looking instrument, stocks are a discounting mechanism. Toss in the Dorsey Wright relative strength sell signal, Tom DeMark's "13" sell signal (the strongest) and multiyear resistance and, well, a case can certainly be made. And that's without the F-Troop smoke or any of the attendant bubble troubles.
As it stands, the Minx is attempting to brave the winds and hug the bears. It's been a long year for Boo's brethren but the convergence of indicators is probably his best shot at revenge. That doesn't necessarily mean it's today's business but the conditional elements are in place. Whether or not the sell side finds any motivation remains to be seen. I'll tell you one thing--Hoofy doesn't seem to have a care in the world.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter