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Petty Thieves

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He doesn't care?

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It's all right if you love me
It's all right if you don't
I'm not afraid of you running away
Honey I get the feeling you won't

(Tom Petty)

The early morning tug-o-war is in full swing as the first rally gave way to some downside testage. I peered over my eight screens at Fokker and asked him if it was too early for the fade to begin (don't worry--it was rhetorical). It kinda felt like that anyway and, if form holds, the second rally attempt should offer Boo a better entry point. Have we seen it yet? Probably not...but I don't have a high degree of confidence on that.

Looking at our sector tells, the piggies, internets (ex-EBAY (EBAY:NASD)) and semicaps are (thus far)lethargic. Still, the tone is decent, breadth is minty and I'm seeing a strong mix of real (mutual fund) buyers and panicky call chasers. The common theme? Everyone seems to be gripping the handlebars extra tight and staring at the ticks as if THAT is the one. Chill, Minyans, and devise a game plan that allows the Minx to work for you.

Maybe I'm eating a silly sandwich but I gotta think the banks (and rate sensitive names in general) are approaching a fork in the road. I understand about loan growth and the perception of (cough) credit quality but, as a forward looking instrument, stocks are a discounting mechanism. Toss in the Dorsey Wright relative strength sell signal, Tom DeMark's "13" sell signal (the strongest) and multiyear resistance and, well, a case can certainly be made. And that's without the F-Troop smoke or any of the attendant bubble troubles.

As it stands, the Minx is attempting to brave the winds and hug the bears. It's been a long year for Boo's brethren but the convergence of indicators is probably his best shot at revenge. That doesn't necessarily mean it's today's business but the conditional elements are in place. Whether or not the sell side finds any motivation remains to be seen. I'll tell you one thing--Hoofy doesn't seem to have a care in the world.

As always, I hope this finds you well.
position in fnm
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