Hangin' with Billy Ray
By Todd Harrison Nov 07, 2003 7:39 am
Limits on those orders please!
Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the unlimited carnage you are about to witness. Superbowl, World Series -- they don't know what pressure is. In this building, it's either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One moment you're up half a mil in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?
--Louis Winthorpe III, Trading Places
Good morning and welcome to the Heritage Club. After much ado, Clarence Beeks will march through Minyanville with the much anticipated orange crop report. When the data hits the wires at 8:30, it will trigger a mad rush of excitement from critters far and wide. While the report (and subsequent action) will go a long way in dictating the minxy fray, we know that emotions are best left for weddings and funerals. It's gonna be hairy, my friends, so take a deep breath and let's tackle this bad boy.
It's almost a universal belief that the job market is taking a turn for the better. The question today, most likely, is one of degree. Consensus estimates call for a gain of 65,000 new jobs (I've heard whispers of 100k). If the report is in fact robust, Boo will have lost another battle in this long, hard war. He will (correctly) point out that the Minx is a discounting mechanism (and the news is always best at a top), but those "big picture" concerns will linger and loom until they unleash their doom.
Today's reaction will obviously offer insight on a few different levels. You know that the "lunar eclipse" awaits above (and with it, perhaps, the fate of the Burned Razor) and that's been the backbone of the recent bear thesis. The market is overbought (particularly the semis), but manic panics often render those measures obsolete. The ability of the bulls to pitch tent above those levels is Hoofy's mission in the rain.
On a separate (yet noteworthy) topic, AMG data revealed net outflows from mutual funds for the first time in a while. As this was the first report since the Putnam mess, it's worth keeping an eye on. We know that psychology is one of the potential bubble troubles and, at some level, investors are paying attention to the unfolding events. If (big if) outflows become more commonplace, the supply side of the equation would gain some beef. With cash levels this low, it wouldn't take much for them to start stamping red tickets.
The early morning picture is green with envy. The Jinx was firm, European bourses are up between 1-2% and the stateside futes are pointing higher. Now that we've got that covered, we can forget about it. In less than an hour, the world will trade as a function of the domestic employment picture. In nine hours, however, it'll all be over and we can turn our attention to our requisite two-day respite. Let's take care of business so we can focus on the important stuff and enjoy the weekend.
Good luck today.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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