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The Trading Genesis


I can feel it coming in the air tonight, Oh Lord
I've been waiting for this moment for all my life, Oh Lord
Can you feel it coming in the air tonight, Oh Lord, Oh Lord

(Phil Collins)

Alright, I can't help myself anymore-I've been avoiding this situation long enough. I know, as you do, that society has little tolerance for people who trumpet success and sweep failures under the rug. The truth will come out eventually so, instead of living in denial, it's always better to come clean and purge the soul. In that vein, and the interest of shaking up the mojo, I must throw myself at the mercy of the N.F.L. My beloved Raiders, once considered the best team in the league, have been mired in mediocrity since their brief stint as the lone undefeated team. I hereby plead to the football gods to remove the curse of Al Davis and let us move on with our lives. The silver and black purgatory has lasted long enough-the Raider Nation needs playoff football!

Turning our attention back to today's action, it's been a relative yawnfest since our last post with the only difference being a marginal uptick in the internals. I continue to see Macros (global hedge funds) piecing out inventory, but the same question remains from this morning: is the Minx digesting this supply or are they beginning to unwind the trade? We know, from the flow, that the "street" is generally long right now, but it remains to be seen how many more bullets remain in their guns.

We haven't heard much from conference land and they're pretty much winding down as we speak. All eyes, ears and teeth are now squarely focused on two events as investors attempt to chew through the next round of information. Personally, I think we get 25 bips, but I'd be remiss if I "told" you how the market will initially react. It's easy to talk about the wouldas, shouldas and couldas after the fact, but those actually in the mix must make real-time decisions. I've always found that mapping out a game-plan before the fact is helpful in removing emotion. Markets trade as a function of time and a function of price, so identify your prince points and time frame and try to remain proactive.

You guys know my posture at present and, while I think a pullback/downdraft is a matter of time, I'm surely saving some dry powder for better prices. If I could point to one fatal flaw of mine throughout my career, it's that I'm always early to the trade. The optimist would say that I simply see things before others, but I'd be lying if I said it wasn't frustrating at times. After twelve years, I should have incorporated this into my swing by now (like a baseball player would adjust his stance)--but if I've learned anything in this business, it's that there's always room for improvement. Remember, humility is your friend.

Our young intern Martin just dropped of my soup so I'm gonna start sippin' and toss my other hat back on. For those who have inquired about the kid (from my old column), it pains me to inform you that he has yet to recover from his breakup with the minxy Jill. If you're reading this, young lady, please take him back. He hasn't been the same ever since you introduced him to Dumpsville!

I'll be back.

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