Good luck into the close!
"There's no reason to become alarmed, and we hope you'll enjoy the rest of your flight. By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?"
--Elaine Dickinson, Airplane
The afternoon flight is fighting its plight as traders prepare for the big night. While most stocks are lower (and the action is slower), Hoofy is pushing his furry lawn mower. "The semis are strong for those who stand long," he sings, "and the forest will echo with laugher." He may be right (we may be crazy) as we only have to look at housing.com to see that mania still exists.
While the breadth has yet to confirm the upside, the semis and money centers (banks) are hanging tough. Further, the Euro is slipping against the dollar and if the gorillas still have the "long Euro/short equity" trade on, that could be lending a bid to the tape. All in all, this session is a relative push although the last hour could be a whippy trip.
I've spent a fair amount of time today pouring over various research reports--from Ned Davis to John Roque to Jeff DeGraaf to Scott Reamer to George Zip--and if one thing is clear, it's that we're entering an uber-important time for the tape. I'm not sure if it's a Cisco thing or a Friday payroll gig but there's something swimming out there. Anxiety in the street is higher than usual and, as we know, emotional tapes can exacerbate volatility (either way).
A quick little tidbit I picked up recently (although I can't remember where). Everyone seems relieved that we got through September and October without a major hiccup. If this report is right (and I have confidence it is), the seasonally weak period in the year preceding an election is November and December. Will form hold? I think so (at some level) but, either way, I wanted to make sure that you saw this data point.
I'm relatively balanced (with a fair amount of gamma) as we edge towards Friday's payrolls. I'm quite aware that this may be a cute approach but I can't shake the feeling that bear market rallies end on good news (higher first). My gut still says lower (ultimately) but I haven't wrapped my paws around whether we trade higher first. When unsure, trade "in between" and understand that opportunities are made up easier than losses.
I'm gonna juggle this rainbow and ready for Chambo but, before I go, I wanna share a quick story. A good friend of mine (and fellow Minyan) recently found out that his pal has pancreatic cancer. As this is the first time that somebody close to him has been terminal, he's been (understandably) reflective and somber. Unless you've dealt with this experience first hand, it's hard to put into words the helplessness involved. All too often, it takes something bad to make us realize we have it good. My point? Don't take anything for granted, my friends, for just like that...it could be gone. Just a little perspective as we ready ourselves for battle.
Fare ye well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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