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Wall of Shame


Some people say I'm obnoxious and lazy
I'm uneducated-my opinion means nothin'
But I know I'm a real good dancer
Don't need to look over my shoulder to see what I'm after

(John Cougar Mellencamp)

The gigglefest continues as the macro funds, smelling blood, scamper around the street lifting offers. They know, as we do, that emotion is a powerful animal and they'll do everything they can to squeeze the panicky shorts. I've never been one to play the greater fool theory and, while I'm actively trading around a core thesis, I'm viewing this price action as an opportunity. Maybe that's a flawed approach but, if history is any guide, I'm probably just early to the trade.

One thing to keep in mind is that the news is always worst at a trading bottom and best at a trading top. New readers may view this argument as a rationalization but I've always been one to get bearish higher and bullish lower-not the other way around. For the old school players among you, I'd be 75% Boo with the final appendage within reach. What that means, in a nutshell, is that my conviction level on the short side is 75% and I'm saving the last 25% for further disconnect. I've only been fully suited a handful of times in my career, but I'm getting close. Hopefully, this sheds light unto my thought process.

According to plan, the pervasive chatter of upticks is making its way through the trading wire and I'm spending my time adding to my defined risk downside puts. I generally prefer to buy the "out month" (December) but, given the string of news this week, I'm playing November as well. With the street this panicky and last year's sustained rally in everyone's mind, timing the turn can be a painful proposition. In this instance, however, I would rather be early than late.

Not always right-but always honest. Gotta hop.
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