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Talking Turkey

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Stepping out of the dentist's chair, I couldn't help but think that this morning's stitchfest was the proverbial frying pan. Indeed, I walked back into my office to find the futures on fire and the mood on the street absolutely sizzling. During Friday's free association, we alluded to the necessity of this technical breakout (for the bear thesis to unfold), but it always seems harder to see the forest when the trees are growing right before your eyes. The cheerleaders who are urging you to buy stock won't reimburse you if the market reverses, so make decisions consistent with your means. Remember, emotion is the enemy when trading and lucidity is our friend...leave the pom poms to the Raiderettes and let's get to work.

We often discuss the virtue of patience and ours will surely be tested this week. There are several binary events in our midst and, taken collectively, these will go a long way in shaping the market's tenor. In the meantime, we'll continue to digest the daily nuances with hopes that we can find some profitability along the way. In that vein, throw NDX 1052 and S&P 923 (August highs) on your radars as new levels to monitor to the upside. With the long side getting a bit crowded (especially after this morning), the obvious question remains: is it too late to buy? I would offer that the answer to that is a function of your risk profile and time horizon-not to mention your overall market thesis. There is a big difference between respecting the price action and deferring to it. Make this distinction before you start stamping tickets.

Tells today will once again include the financials (in front of the FOMC), the semi's (extended but crowded), retailers (consumer proxy), biotechs (sentiment), the U.S Dollar (for signs of slippage), Bonds (alligator watch) and the Microsoft/Cisco duopoly. As always, we'll also be factoring in our trading flow and the market's internals as we find our way. The opening flurry promises to be hairy and the first half hour is always noisy, so factor that into your process.

Once again, let me remind you that the disclosures at the bottom of this page are not recommendations to play along. We have an extensive book and, while I will always list positions I mention in a particular post, there are many more in our portfolio. Thanks!

See you after the opening.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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