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The Pre-Festivus Potpourri


The sharpest corrections occur in the context of a bull market?

  • "Son, I don't have much to give you except a name, but it's a clean name. It's never been on a police blotter, and it's never caused any trouble. See that you take care of it." John Bettis (Jerome's dad), who died earlier this week.

  • Hey, as Ruby always said, "All you have is your name and your word."We've noted the importance of HGX 220 as a level for the homies. Keep an eye on that on the heels of this morning's upgrade of the group by BankAmerica.

  • Energy acne? As my buddy Jeff Saut would say, "You betcha!" We've been spying it all week and they broke out like a nervous schoolgirl yesterday.

  • Metals and Energy, Energy and Metals. Yes, both sectors have deflation risk. On a relative basis (vs. the tape in general and the financials in particular), I think they're relative winners for a long time.

  • And, at the very end of the Hump Day session, a gorilla walked in and bought 1,000,000 XLE (energy spiders). For schnitz and giggles.

  • Ball bearings? Where the heck are the fetzer valves?

  • The sharpest corrections occur in the context of a bull market? That's the word in Matador City these days following Monday's flush. I'm not so sure that they should be counting their shekels just yet.

  • "We have another new all-time high in the equal-weighted CRB today, and now the XNG Natural Gas and XOI Oil equity indices are also breaking out to new all-time highs." Professor Lance Lewis on yesterday's Buzz ( Editor 's Note: See the rest of Lance's article here... exclusively on the Minyanville Buzz & Banter).

  • Same Store Sales ? Macke definitely has a Chloe face going this morning.

  • Watch those frisky financials--particularly the brokers--for clues in today's fuse. They've opened with a distinctly crimson hue.

  • Hello Muddah, hello Faddah, see the dollar, fresh with squalor (DXY -40 bips).

  • Vacancy rates for homes for sale (excluding rental property) has ranged from 0.9% to 1.9% from 1956 to 2005. Today it is 2.5%." Professor John Succo on yesterday's Buzz.

  • I sure hope this doesn't jeopardize his attendance tomorrow night!

  • Minyan Mailbags!

    • Toddo-

      I'm sitting on some Dec. In-The-Money Calls for the drillers, and I'm curious as to your opinion on exiting/holding the position given the movement today?

      I'm bullish on the stock Transocean (RIG), but I'm unsure of the calls that have doubled since I bought them last week. Thanks, Minyan Kevin

      Minyan Ken Sunshine,

      We don't do specific advice in the 'Ville (sorry) but when I have positions similar to yours, I do one of three things.

      A) Roll your calls "up and out" (higher strike, later expiration)
      B) "Calendar" those puppies (simply roll them to a later expiration)
      C) Scale out of 'em and take the trade.

      It really depends on your catalyst, time horizon and risk profile. I will offer, as has been noted on the 'Ville repeatedly this week, that the energy patch has a technical bid to it (with the reverse dandruff flaking higher).

      Donke shoen, Minyan Ken.

    • Toddo,

      I just read the Financial Alchemy post by Succo on the Buzz. Is this not right in line with your "elasticity of debt" thread from last week? Thanks! Minyan Z


      Yes indeed. In a finance based globally connected economy, these institutions are all in the same boat. JP Morgan is General Motors is the FOMC is Brazil is the hedge fund world.

      One big party!

    • Hey Toddo,

      Does anyone ever say to guys like Laurie--"Hey, great going with the SSRI, etc.? If so, then please count me in!" Minyan DAY


      Well, yes and no.

      Yes in that we always like to give snaps for good vibes (Laurie gave us the wink on SSRI at MIM2 in $11!).

      No in that we don't take victory laps or glad hand in the 'Ville. We'll sometimes be right, we'll sometimes be wrong but we'll always be honest. At the end of the day, however, the responsibilities of your financial decisions fall on your shoulders.

      So, in that regard, it is you who deserves that pat on the back.

  • (The following mailbag was borrowed from yesterday's Buzz courtesy of Miss Stephanie Pomboy)


    I am wondering if I can get an update on your views of the yen after the recent dollar weakness.

    Minyan PS


    As to the unwinding of the yen (and other cheap fx) carry trades, in my view there's still very little progress to speak of. The action in the dollar has been largely against the euro, not the yen, and looking at the spec trader commitments through last week, few seemed to have been shaken from their roost.

    The ability to borrow in cheap currencies like yen and swissie continues to be an important force in the global liquidity dynamic. This is why, I believe, the selloff in the dollar so far, has not been manifest with the kind of asset correction we saw in mid-May. Stay tuned there's plenty to come!


  • Housekeeping!

    • The incomparable Steve Shobin called this morning to inform us that-regrettably-he'll have to miss tomorrow's MIM-CCA conference and Festivus. The talented Mr. Roque, Senior Vice-President at Natexis Bleichroeder, will be assuming his position on the second panel.

    • If you're Buzz isn't refreshing, it's not your fault…it's not your fault…it's not your fault. We're having a minor technical glitch but we're on it. Please hit F5 or click 'latest post' to refresh the Buzz and we'll have it back to its normal, snazzy self in no time.

    • Many thanks to the RP Foundation Board and Team Minyan for their intense effort in front of tomorrow night. These shindigs aren't lay-ups by any stretch but we're gonna help alotta kids.

    • On that note, and in front of five afternoon meetings and a heckuva lotta "do to's," I'm gonna be out-of-pocket into our event. We'll do our best to share the insight and acumen from tomorrow's group mingle with ye faithful who are unable to attend. Fare ye well the next coupla sessions and thank you kindly for the continued support. "We" wouldn't "be" without YOU.


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Position in financials, metals, JPM
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